Monday, 10 December 2012

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -3pts, we're set to open around sp'1415. The smaller 15/60min trading cycles are due for some kind of move lower, but until we're back <1410, bears should be concerned that a break over last Mondays peak of 1423 is viable at any moment.





There is no significant econ-data until Thursday, when we have retail sales. However, there is the FOMC on Wednesday, which will clearly be the last major 'event' of the year.

Bears should be seeking a Monday close <sp'1410. That would suffice, and re-open the door to sub 1400s. I'm guessing we have a shot at 1375 later this week, thats feasible, and is only 2.5% lower.

We have a long week ahead, doubtless, it'll get a little wild on Wednesday...a Fed day, when Bernanke is expected to confirm 'naked/unsterilised' T-bond buying of 45bn commencing in January - in addition to the 40bn of MBS currently underway.

So, to be clear, I'm seeking one final small wave lower this week, before a final bounce into Christmas week. Whether that 'final bounce' makes a new high >1423, I can't guess.

What is clear, we'll VERY likely melt upward into Christmas week, after whatever level of decline we might see this week.

More across the day.