Saturday 1 December 2012

Monthly charts still warning of trouble

November comes to an end, and whilst many cheer leaders on the clown network finance TV are looking forward to the usual 'Santa rally', ...maybe...just maybe..the only presents Santa is bringing this Christmas are lit sticks of dynamite.

*I will do a full posting on the US monthly index charts tomorrow, but lets take a quick peek on how we closed the month.


sp'monthly3, rainbow



sp'monthly5' fibs


Summary

First, as I noted yesterday, I was seeking at least another blue candle on the monthly rainbow charts..and a blue candle we have!

So..the 'provisional' warning of trouble that flagged up in October, has been confirmed this November. This is good, and should please any bear out there.


Fib levels - suggesting low sp'1200s.

Based on a collection of bits and pieces, I'm seeking sp'1225 in the next wave. Now, I might be completely wrong of course, and a few daily closes in the 1430/40s would wreck my outlook.

However, if we do see a major wave lower, a VERY natural level for the market to floor - especially if it breaks the June'1266 low, would be somewhere around sp'1230/20.

*don't get too fixated on particular Fib' levels though, I think they should be used as a rough guide, and of course, many traders don't like them anyway. I can certainly understand the latter viewpoint.
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Well, November went very much as expected - which was pleasing to see.

If December goes as I expect, then I will be considerably more pleased, and much more confident of where we are going to be trading across 2013.

Goodnight from London