Tuesday, 8 May 2012

SPY/VIX ratio - still suggesting a giant H/S

The SPY/VIX ratio remains very high, but on the shorter time frame, we do still have some signs of a bearish rollover  Whether this is indeed the right shoulder of a giant head and shoulders formation, we'll just have to wait and see across this coming summer.

SPY/VIX, 1yr

SPY/VIX, 10yr

SPY/VIX, 3yr


The bigger 10yr chart certainly is something to consider. With the VIX itself a mere 18.94, there is a lot of upside, and only marginal downside. Besides, the weekly VIX cycle is still trending higher.

I realise these 3 charts are arguably more of an academic curiosity than for trading purposes (certainly short term swing trades!), but still..I think its paramount to have an idea of where we are in the grander cycle.

Goodnight from London