Tuesday, 17 April 2012

VIX Weekly...baby step forward

The VIX is starting to creep upward on the bigger..and more important weekly cycle. After last weeks bullish cross on the MACD cycle, we are so far still holding above the critical 10MA.

VIX, weekly.

Right now, only a VIX breaking under 17.00 would be cause for the bulls to feel confident, and to have real hope of SP' >1422.

Conversely, the doomer bears will desperately need to see a first stage attempt to hit VIX 24 in the days ahead. A pull back from 24 would be very natural, before the VIX might explode into the 30s/40s, especially as we move into the 'sell in May..go away' month.

The VIX weekly is certainly something to watch this week. Even if we do get a bounce in the main indexes across the next few days, the key issue will be how does the VIX close this week? A further weekly closing above the 10MA would be a serious warning of further falls in the indexes once we get opex out of the way.

Good wishes for Tuesday trading.