Friday, 22 June 2018

A mixed end to the week

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +5pts (0.2%) at 2754. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and -0.2% respectively. VIX settled -5.9% at 13.77. Near term outlook offers sp'2779 on Monday, before another rollover, as 2718 remains due.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, then saw some chop, not helped as the US President was posting once more on Twitter. Equities battled upward into the afternoon, but did see some distinct weakness in the closing minutes.

Volatility was notably subdued, with the VIX settling the week in the 13s. Near term outlook offers VIX 16/17s, assuming sp'2718, whether next week, or early July.

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Thursday, 21 June 2018

Typical Thursday

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -17pts (0.6%) at 2749. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and -1.0% respectively. VIX settled 14.5% at 14.64. Near term outlook offers a bounce to 2779, before resuming lower to technical necessity of 2718 next week.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little weak, and quickly unravelled to a morning floor of sp'2748. From there, upside to 2760, a cooling wave to 2749, and then resuming upward into late afternoon.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX seeing 15.18, the highest level since May 31st. There was some latter day cooling, with the VIX settling in the mid 14s. Near term outlook offers sp'2779, before another rollover. Prime target remains sp'2718, which will likely equate to VIX 16/17s.
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Bonus chart: China


It was another rough day for Chinese equities, settling -1.4% at 2875. Its a case of technical open air to the Feb' 2016 low of 2638, and that is another 8.2% lower.
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Goodnight from London
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Wednesday, 20 June 2018

Weak Wednesday bounce

US equity indexes closed broadly positive, sp +4pts (0.2%) at 2767. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and +0.8% respectively. VIX settled -4.2% at 12.79. Near term outlook offers technical necessity of sp'2718, which should equate to VIX 15/16s.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and clawed upward to an early afternoon high of 2774. Late afternoon saw a s/t cyclical rollover, with slight cooling. Its notable that the Nasdaq comp' and R2K broke new historic highs, and are a reminder of underlying m/t super strength in the US equity market.

Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX melting lower, and settling in the mid 12s.
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Bonus chart: China


The Chinese equity market also saw a weak Wednesday bounce, +0.3% to 2915. The price action so far this year is outright ugly.

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Goodnight from London
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