Friday, 24 October 2014

12pm update - moderate gains

US equities have seen a minor up wave, with the sp' in the low 1960s. Energy remains very weak, Nat' gas -2.1%, with Oil -0.7%. Metals are a little weak, Gold -$2. VIX is cooling into the weekend, -2% in the low 16s.


sp'60min


Summary

Without getting lost in the minor noise, the sp' is making a play to break a new cycle high >1962.

Still... some weakness in the latter part of the day seems likely. Who will want to hold long across the weekend?

*There is an EU bank stress test result, this Sunday, 12pm (CET), and that will be an issue for Sunday night futures.
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Notable strength, BABA +3.7% in the $97s, making a move to test the $99 high.... early next week.

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VIX update from Mr T.


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time for tea :)

11am update - chop chop

Equities remain choppy, with a likely daily close in the sp'1955/45 zone. VIX is a little higher, but looks set for a weekly close in the mid teens. Energy prices are weak, Nat' gas -2.2%, with Oil -1.8%.


sp'daily5b


USO, daily


Summary

Little to add... on what is likely to be 'chop into the weekend'.

*I realise some are seeking some kind of small B wave lower... and the 1910/00 zone would be a valid target.. but really, price momentum has been so strong this week, its hard to get any sustained downside.
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Bears would arguably do well to just sit it out until next Wednesday afternoon, when we have the FOMC announcing the end of QE3... not so infinite after all, eh?

Notable weakness, oil/gas drillers, RIG & SDRL, both lower by around -2.5%
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time to cook

10am update - opening mixed chop

Equities open with some mixed chop, but with the underlying upside still noticeable, sp'500 +0.2% in the mid 1950s. Energy prices are weak, Nat' gas -1.8%, with Oil -0.9%, the latter sure won't help the market today. VIX is a touch lower, stuck in the mid teens.


sp'daily5


Summary

*note the upper bollinger on the daily chart, it is falling.. and will be a key aspect of resistance next week... in the 1970s.. along with many other aspects.
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So.. we open a little higher... but I don't expect much from today... probably chop... and a flat close. Overall though, a strong week for the bulls.
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Notable movers

DRYS -27%.. on a new share offering

AMZN is lower by -7%, certainly nothing too dramatic, relative to the recent NFLX smackdown.
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time to shop.... back soon.


10.12am.... chop chop.. a touch of weakness, VIX +5%, but really, barring another 'spooky' Ebola news headline during today,  I can't see anything other than moderate chop in the 1950/40s.

Oil continues to slide, -1.3%.. and that is a problem for the broader market.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures have largely recovered from overnight lows, and are set to open just a touch lower, sp -1pt @ 1949. Metals are flat, whilst Oil is -0.7%. Nat' gas remains especially weak, -1.6%.


sp'daily5b - last line


Summary

So.. a little Ebola scare overnight in NYC, but still the market manages to stay effectively flat.

All things considered, market will probably see chop for the next 4 days, into the FOMC of Wednesday afternoon.

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Notable weakness: AMZN, -10.3% @ $280, having taken out the May low of $284. after an earnings miss.

DRYS -23% @ $1.54, after a new share offering is announced.
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Doom chatter from Hunter.. to wrap up the week



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Thank the gods, its almost the weekend