Wednesday, 23 August 2017

Just a little chop

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -8pts at 2444. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.2% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled +7.9% at 12.25. Near term outlook offers upside to at least partly fill the gap zone of sp'2462/68. For confidence, the bull maniacs need a daily close >2474.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, and remain in weak chop mode for the entire day. The smaller 60/15min cycles are now less overbought, and there is high probability of another push upward across Thurs/early Friday to the 2462/68 zone.

Volatility jumped at the open, and tagged the lower end of a minor gap zone, before settling a little below the opening highs.
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Bullish sunshine and telecommunications

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Tuesday, 22 August 2017

Bouncing for a lower high?

US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +24pts at 2452. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.9% and 1.1% respectively. VIX settled -13.9% at 11.35. Near term outlook threatens a little weak chop, but more broadly, minimum target remains the gap zone of sp'2462/68.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and built rather significant gains into the late afternoon. Certainly, the gains were stronger than expected, and the close above the 50dma bodes for further upside within the immediate term. There will be major resistance within the gap zone of 2462/68, and from last Wednesday's high of 2474.

Market volatility was crushed lower for a third day, and cyclically, we're due a bearish MACD cross at tomorrow's open. In theory, the VIX could remain under downward pressure all the way into the weekend. The 10s look probable with sp'2462. The 9s look a stretch, unless the market can achieve a daily close >sp'2475, and that looks difficult until at least next week.
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A lower high?

The key issue now is whether the market puts in a lower high (<sp'2490), or can eventually push to new historic highs in September. The bulls really need to achieve a new high, as there are multiple aspects of support, which must remain intact, otherwise the situation would start to mirror what has already occured in the R2K and NYSE comp'.

I sure don't have a time machine, so I can't say with certainty what is ahead, but I'd suggest anyone go stare at the following for a few minutes...

VIX weekly


The series of lower highs from Aug'2015 has concluded, and that is an issue not to be dismissed lightly.

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Monday, 21 August 2017

Choppy upside

US equity indexes closed fractionally mixed, sp +2pts at 2428 (intra low 2417). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled -7.5% at 13.19. Near term outlook offers choppy upside to the gap zone of 2462/68. From there, things get real divisive.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, and saw a moderate down wave to floor at sp'2417. There was something of a latter day recovery, with the daily candle offering a somewhat spiky floor. There is basic upside to 2462/68, which is clearly going to mean the market will soon be above the 50dma (around 2450).

The VIX opened a little lower, saw a brief bounce to turn fractionally positive, but was then ground lower all the way into the late afternoon.

Near term offers sp'2462/68, which will probably equate to VIX 11s. Where we go from there... is the grander issue. I'd refer anyone to the weekend post.

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