Wednesday, 22 May 2019

Where are the shorts now?

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, sp -8pts (0.3%) at 2856. Nasdaq comp' -0.4%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.7% and -0.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers further moderate swings across the remainder of the week.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately weak, saw an afternoon low of 2851, and settling just a little weak. Volatility saw a high of 15.44, but melted back lower, settling -1.3% at 14.75.


Where are the shorts now?

After a decade long climb from sp'666 to 2954, it really shouldn't be surprising that short interest is at levels last seen in 2006.


Much like when VIX is in the low teens, there is really only one direction this can go from here. 




Yours, awaiting the end of QT, and rate cut'1.
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Arriving in the land of BREXIT chaos


 A good example of a sun dog (there was a corresponding one, off to the left).

A fine summer's evening
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Tuesday, 21 May 2019

I don't envy the guy

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +24pts (0.8%) at 2864. Nasdaq comp' +1.1%. Dow +0.8%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.5% and +1.3% respectively.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and built broad gains into the mid afternoon. Unlike recent days, the late afternoon didn't see any cooling of note.

Volatility was naturally in cooling mode, with the VIX settling -8.3% at 14.95. The s/t cyclical outlook offers a mixed Wednesday, a bearish Thursday, and a subdued Friday, the latter of which will favour the bulls ahead of the three day break.
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I don't envy the guy

Last evening, Powell delivered a keynote speech "Mapping the Financial Frontier: What does the next decade hold?".


The next decade? How about even predicting the next GDP print?

Powell is in a monetary box, but then... so was Yellen and the Bernanke. QT is set to conclude in September, and rate cut'1 can be expected as early as the FOMC of Oct'30th.

Trump will no doubt put the blame for eventual economic weakness with an associated equity market drop on Print Central. Many of you might think I'd smile at that. No, and I don't envy Powell. Life in Powell land is going to become more pressured with each passing month. No doubt Bullard - aka, the Bane of the equity bears, is on standby to take over.


The BREXIT debacle continues... 

As expected, the UK Govt' is moving towards some kind of parliamentary deal between the main parties, and one which will offer a second referendum/confirmatory vote for such a deal.

Let me be clear, the UK populace would arguably vote 53/47 AGAINST any such deal, and thus vote to remain within the EU.

Yours... correctly called the original BREXIT vote, the Trump victory, and sure as hell knows which way the UK will vote in any subsequent BREXIT related vote.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London... still part of the EU.
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Monday, 20 May 2019

Starting weak

US equity indexes closed on a weak note, sp -19pts (0.7%) at 2840. Nasdaq comp' -1.5%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and -0.7% respectively.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities began the week on a weak note with early weakness to 2832, a rebound into the early afternoon, a closing hour low of 2831, and settling at 2840.

Volatility saw an early high of 17.63, with the VIX settling +2.2% at 16.31. Indeed, VIX is reflecting very little mainstream concern, even though some parts of the market (namely tech) are still getting whacked. The s/t cyclical setup favours the equity bulls, although price structure of a bear flag (in a number of indexes) has already started to play out.

Meanwhile...


Bostic of the Atlanta fed has few concerns. It is increasingly 'curious' to see the mainstream expecting a rate cut. Right now, that looks no earlier than the FOMC of Oct'30th... just after the QT program has fully concluded.
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--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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For details and the latest offers, see: permabeardoomster.com