Saturday, 16 March 2019

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a very bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +3.8% (Nasdaq comp'), +2.9% (SPX), +2.4% (NYSE comp'), +2.1% (R2K), +1.9% (Trans), to 1.6% (Dow).


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


The SPX climbed for the 10th week of 12, breaking a new cycle high of 2830, settling +79pts (2.9%) to 2822. Note the upper weekly bollinger at 2894, and that will offer resistance in the low 2900s into early April.


Nasdaq comp'


The Nasdaq comp' climbed for the 11th week of 12, breaking a new cycle high of 7714, settling +280pts (3.8%) at 7688.


Dow


The mighty Dow climbed for the 10th week of 12, settling +398pts (1.6%) to 25848.


NYSE comp'


The NYSE comp' climbed for the 9th week of 12, settling +300pts (2.4%) to 12715.


R2K


The R2K climbed for the 10th week of 12, settling +31pts (2.1%) to 1553.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Transports, climbed for the 9th week of 12, settling +193pts (1.9%) to 10310.



Summary

All six of the main US equity indexes saw very significant net weekly gains.

The Nasdaq comp' and SPX lead the way upward, with the Transports and Dow lagging.

YTD price performance:


The Nasdaq comp' is leading the way for the first time this year, currently +15.9%. The R2K +15.2%, the SPX +12.6%, with the Transports +12.4%. The NYSE comp' is +11.8%, with the Dow lagging at +10.8%.
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Looking ahead

Earnings; OSTK, TLRY (Mon'), FDX (Tues'), MU (Wed'), NKE (Thurs'), TIF, DB (Fri')

M - Housing market index
T - Factory orders
W - EIA Pet' report

*FOMC: 2pm. Whilst rates will be held at 2.25-2.50%, its very possible an end date for QT will be announced. There will be a press conf' at 2.30pm, and that will last around an hour.

T - Weekly jobs, phil' fed, leading indicators,
F - Existing home sales, wholesale trade.
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.

Friday, 15 March 2019

Quad-opex strength

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +14pts (0.5%) at 2822. Nasdaq comp' +0.8%. Dow +0.5%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.2% respectively

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, breaking a new multi-month cycle high in the early afternoon of 2830. This was just 110pts (3.9%) from the Sept' historic high, and a monstrous 484pts (20.6%) above the Dec' low. The late afternoon saw a little cooling

Volatility was in melt mode, with the VIX breaking a new cycle low of 12.50, settling -4.6% at 12.88.
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No sunshine for the bears.
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Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 14 March 2019

Tedious minor chop

US equity indexes closed a little weak, sp -2pts (0.1%) at 2808. Nasdaq comp' -0.2%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers quad-opex chop into the weekend.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was a day of tedious minor chop in equity land, with an SPX trading range just 11.54pts wide. Volatility was itself subdued, settling fractionally higher in the mid 13s.

Friday is quad-opex, and that will inherently lean to broad chop. On balance, I'd look for the market makers to try to work their magic, and pin the market around the sp'2800 threshold.


Meanwhile...


It was just another day in the UK, with a series of votes on BREXIT related matters. The thing is... none of the votes have ANY legal implications. If the UK govt' wishes to just ignore them, and exit the EU with no deal, they are legally allowed to just let it happen.

As things are, an attempt to delay BREXIT seems probable, but it is a situation of 100% chaos. Many now believe PM May will resign, once BREXIT (with some kind of deal/agreement) occurs. The next general election (whenever that might be), will doubtless see Corbyn elected. That in itself will be 'interesting', to put it mildly.
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Goodnight from London
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