Friday, 23 June 2017

Leaning weak

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -1pt at 2434.  The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers the sp'2415/00 zone.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, clawing upward to 2441. There was a clear rollover into the close.

Market volatility remains broadly subdued, although the VIX is still managing to stay out of the 9s.

Near term outlook offers at least sp'2422/20, which should equate to VIX 12s. If sp'2415/00 zone, then 13/14s are viable. The key 20 threshold looks out of range until at least late September. The only wild card would be a weekend 'North Korean surprise'.

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Meanwhile... here in London city...


The 'Tower' story keeps on running.. see: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40366646

The latest is there are around 600 'clad' towers in England, although no one yet knows how many are covered in the flammable version. I'd guess at least a quarter, as the flammable version is (naturally) cheaper.

Yours truly prefers nothing higher than a few floors, and simple unclad brick.

Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 22 June 2017

A midsummer's day market

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -1pt at 2435. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.1% and -0.3% respectively. VIX settled -1.0% at 10.75. Near term outlook offers the 2415/00 zone, which might equate to VIX 13/14s. Broadly, the 2500s are a given.. as early as late July.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, and saw some moderate weakness to sp'2430 - fully filling the opening gap from Monday morning. There was an attempt to bounce in the afternoon, but it was pretty weak. A break <2430 will offer 2415/00 before the weekend. This was something that should have happened last week, but quad-opex was something of a hindrance.

Market volatility popped to 11.40 - with sp'2430, but settling in the 10s. Its something of an irony to note we've not traded VIX 9s in 9 trading days.
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Midsummer's day concludes

So many planes... bullish UAL?

Extra charts in AH @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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Wednesday, 21 June 2017

A little weakness

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -16pts at 2437. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.8% and -1.1% respectively. VIX settled 4.7% at 10.86. Near term outlook offers short term weakness to sp'2415/00, but broader price action remains 'scary strong'.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little lower, and leaned moderately weak across the day. Its notable that the Dow did break a new historic high of 21535. The very sig' downside in the Tranports though does bode for main market weakness of another 1-1.5% before the weekend.

Market volatility remains broadly subdued, still stuck in the 10s. There is a notable open gap of 13.25/14.75 from May 19th. To see VIX 14s, we'd likely need sp'2400/390s, and that sure won't be easy. In any case, the key 20 threshold looks out of range until at least late Sept/Oct.
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Midsummers eve

4.10pm EST

4.15pm EST

Extra charts in AH @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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