Saturday, 23 May 2015

USD is probably just bouncing

The five week down cycle for the USD has concluded, with a powerful net weekly gain of 3.3% @ DXY 96.26 (Friday intra high 96.36). However, a further wave to the DXY 90/89s looks viable before a hyper-ramp to the 120s.


USD, weekly



USD, monthly3 - outlook


Summary

Last week I noted a 1-2 week bounce to the DXY 95/96s looked viable.. and we're clearly now there. A brief hit of the 97s looks viable next week.. but from there, a 5-8 week decline to the 90/89 zone looks probable.


UUP, daily2, outlook


On any basis, I will look to be long USD - via UUP in the coming few months, although technically, any long-US equity position would certainly be a valid alternative for the rest of this year.

Despite what the 'dollar doomers' might wish to believe, the USD will remain King in the land of FIAT for some years to come.

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend update will be on the US weekly indexes

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -4pts @ 2126. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.8% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook remains broadly bullish into the next FOMC of June 17th.


sp'daily5


Nasdaq comp'


Trans


Summary

*Trans was again notably weak today, breaking a new cycle low of 8452 - the lowest level since mid Oct'.
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In contrast to the Trans, it was a week where the Dow/Sp'500 broke new historic highs of 18351 and 2134 respectively. On any basis...  a week for the equity bulls, as reflected in a VIX that can't even hold the low teens.
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Closing update from Riley



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a little more later...

Friday, 22 May 2015

VIX - subdued into the long weekend

With US equities closing the week moderately mixed, the VIX remained subdued, settling +0.2% @ 12.13 (intra low 11.82). Near term outlook is for continued equity strength into June, which should equate to VIX remaining within the 15/11 zone.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3



VIX'weekly



Summary

* a VIX net weekly decline of -2.0%
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Suffice to say, with the Dow/Sp'500 breaking new historic highs this week, it was no surprise to see the VIX continue to cool.

Today's low of 11.82 was the lowest level since Dec 5th' 2014.

Now its a case of whether sp'2170s (whether June... or July) might equate to VIX 10s... or even 9s - challenging the all time VIX low of 9.31 - Dec 22nd 1993.
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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -4pts @ 2126 (intra high 2132). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.8% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook remains broadly bullish into the next FOMC of June 17th. 


sp'60min


Summary

*a somewhat weak closing hour, but as ever... nothing of significance, merely a case of some cashing out ahead of the long 3 day weekend.
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.. and another week comes to a close at the world's most rigged and twisted casino.

Without question, with another pair of new index highs - Dow/Sp'500, it was another week for the equity bulls. This is despite some distinct weakness in the 'old leader' - Trans. Understandably, it has received some considerable mainstream attention, but one index does not override the broader market.

Until the market is trading under the giant sp'2K threshold, I can't take ANY bearish talk seriously. It is merely the same top calling nonsense that we've seen the key breakout in summer 2013.

Have a good holiday weekend...
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the week