Friday, 19 December 2014

It is getting real tiresome

Whilst US equities continued to powerfully push higher, what remains laughable, but more so... tiresome, is seeing the same old names/sites talk about an imminent crash/collapse wave. The setup for 2015 is far from perfect, but there are many factors that support huge upside.


sp'weekly7, rainbow


Summary

The weekly 'rainbow' candle was red at the Tuesday close of sp'1972... but turned blue this Thursday morning, and with rather extreme strength into the close.. has now turned an outright bullish green.

On any basis... the market is back to 'normal service', the sp'2100s are coming.
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Looking ahead

There is no data due tomorrow. There are two fed officials on the loose, but only Lacker appears likely to be of importance. No doubt, any talk of interest rate hikes in the spring/summer would give the market an excuse for another minor intraday down cycle.

Friday is quad-opex, so expect some very significant price chop into the weekly close.
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As for being tired...

Maybe I have just been reading around too much in the past few days, but I'm getting real tired of seeing even small amounts of bearish hysteria. It has been pleasing to see some equity bears/traders make some good profits, but still, many of those same people are hyper-bearish for next year.

Few seem to have learnt anything since the collapse wave low of March 2009.. or even the more recent key low of Oct' 2011. I'm still hearing endless nonsense talk about how higher interest rates are a bad thing. Tell that to the financials!


Only wanting to hear the doom talk

Then there is the issue of knowing that a fair number of you only want to hear that the market is going to crash. Unlike the maniac 'the end of the worlders' on Zerohedge - who are clearly hyping EVERY news story to a bearish slant, I'm still not going to play that game.

If I end up writing just for an audience of one.... myself... so be it. I will call it bullish... when I see it bullish. If some of you can't cope with that... well, you know where to go.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes soared for a second consecutive day, sp +48pts @ 2061. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.6% and 1.5% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued upside into year end... and beyond.


sp'daily5


R2K


Summary

Suffice to say... powerful gains.. on day'2 of this new multi-week up cycle.

New historic highs are coming for ALL indexes.. even the Nasdaq comp' (March 2000 bubble highs WILL be broken over).

For the equity bulls.. this is an amazing way to end the year. For the bears.... its merely the resumption of the price action since spring 2009.

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*The R2K is due to get a 'golden cross' at the Friday open. A weekly close in the 1190s would be particularly bullish, and offer an attempt to break new historic highs (>1213) before year end.
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Closing update from Riley



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a little more later...

Thursday, 18 December 2014

Volatility continues to be crushed

With equities soaring for a second day, the VIX was naturally still on the slide, settling lower by a very significant -13.5% @ 16.81. Near term outlook offers continued cooling into year end... and beyond. VIX 11s, or even the 10s appear viable by mid/late January 2015.


VIX'daily3


Summary

Little to add.

VIX is clearly in a new multi-week down cycle. Typically... it will take a few weeks to make a floor, and then another 4-6 weeks of minor chop until the next 'brief spike'.

VIX 20s look off the menu until at least late Jan/early Feb.
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More later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities saw a second consecutive day of powerful gains, sp +48pts @ 2061. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.6% and 1.5% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued gains into early 2015... to the sp'2100s.


sp'60min


Summary

*frankly, the closing hour was hillarious... and utter obliteration to those still touting 'its just a bounce'.
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Yesterday was a clear turn... and today offered the bull maniacs the follow through they needed for confirmation.

We're headed higher.. to the sp'2100s. There remains small chance of that before year end, but regardless of when... the 2100s are coming.
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more later... on the VIX