Wednesday, 1 October 2014

12pm update - chop chop

US equities remain moderately weak, with a floor sp'1954. There remains viable downside into mid afternoon.. but a double low seems very possible. VIX is not suggestive of further significant equity falls.. certainly, the 1920/00 zone looks well out of range.


sp'60min


vix'60min


Summary

*price structure is currently a wedge. Suggestive of upside into the Friday close.
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Hourly MACD cycles for both VIX and equities are yet to show a definitive turn... and that is primarily why I am still in wait and see mode.

For now, I will reassess at the typical turn time of 2.30pm.
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VIX update from Mr P.


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time for lunch

11am update - waiting for a floor

US equities are somewhat lower, hovering (on most indexes) around the 100 day MA. VIX is only moderately higher, +3% in the mid 17s. Metals are bouncing, Gold +$5, whilst Oil is +1.0%.


sp'60min


Summary

*I realise some will be getting overly excited at this mornings down wave, but really...the VIX sure isn't powering strongly higher.
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We may have already floored around sp'1954...but for now..I remain a watcher.

I am going to reassess at the afternoon turn time of 2.30pm... maybe we'll have put in a marginal new low around 1950...and then up.


11.22am.. minor chop... sp'1962....with a red VIX

All things considered, still another chance a minor down wave to 2.30pm... maybe a double low of 1954?

I am in no hurry to get involved today..... I think some extra patience will be...useful.

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open moderately lower, and have quickly taken out last Thursday's low of sp'1964. VIX is confirming the move, with a marginal new cycle high in the low 17s. Overall though, price action does not favour a move much below 1958/55.


sp'60min


vix'60min


Summary

Given another few hours, we'll probably be floored... and set for another climb...probably into the Friday close.
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*I remain on the sidelines. With the failure of the bears to show any sig' downside power across Mon/Tuesday, I've little interest in re-shorting the indexes.

I will look to go long... somewhere around 1958/55... once the hourly MACD cycles level out.



10.26am... minor chop..around 1960....

11am would ..as ever.. be a typical time to put in a floor.
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Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -5pts, we're set to open at 1967, just 3pts above the recent low. Metals are bouncing a little, Gold +$5.Equity bears have a chance of hitting the 100 day MA (1957) on a break of 1964.


sp'daily5


Summary

*ADP jobs: 213k, a little above expectations.
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So, we're set to open a little lower, and there is a valid chance of a break this morning. Still, considering the recent fail across Mon/Tuesday, I really don't expect anything much more for the bears.

At best, maybe the 1950s... but we'll likely see a strong ramp from there.... not least with the Friday jobs data.
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Update from Mr C.


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Good wishes for Wednesday!
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9.12am  sp -3pts... set to open at 1969....

Notable weakness, airlines, DAL and UAL both -2.5%


9.37am... Slipping lower.... nothing too exciting..but 1950s look due... with VIX 17s.

*I will be looking to go long.... sometime today.... target is 1958


9.40am... stops getting hit....weaker bulls getting washed away..... 

9.50am.. Market testing the 100 dma @ sp'1958.... VIX 'only' +5%