Saturday, 16 June 2018

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +1.32% (Nasdaq comp'), +1.24% (Trans), +0.68% (R2K), +0.02% (sp'500), -0.76% (nyse comp'), to -0.89% (Dow). Near term outlook offers cooling of 2-4%, before whipsawing back upward.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


The sp' broke a new multi-month high of 2791, but settled +0.02% at 2779. That notably made for a black-fail doji candle, and bodes s/t bearish. First support is basic 'technical necessity' target of 2718, with secondary of 2671. M/t outlook remains bullish, with big target of 2950/3047 by late summer/early autumn,


Nasdaq comp'


The Nasdaq climbed for a fourth consecutive week, breaking a new historic high of 7768, and settling +1.3% to 7746. S/t bearish, with big support zone of 7500/400. M/t bullish, with the 8000s clearly coming this summer.


Dow


The mighty Dow was the laggard this week, settling -0.89% at 25090. S/t bearish with the main market, soft support 24500/200 zone.


NYSE comp'


The master index settled -0.76% at 12734. S/t bearish, with big support 12500/400 zone. New historic highs >13637 look due in late summer.


R2K


The R2K climbed for a seventh consecutive week, breaking a new historic high of 1686, and settling +0.68% at 1683. S/t bearish with the main market, soft support 1630/20 zone. The 1700s look a given in July/August.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Transports, climbed for the fifth week of six, settling +1.24% at 11073. Recent weakness in oil prices especially helped on Friday. S/t bearish with the main market, but if WTIC $62s, the transports might trade flat, rather than actual sig' net weekly declines.
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Summary

A mixed week, with three indexes net higher, one effectively u/c, and two moderately lower.

The Nasdaq comp' and R2K broke new historic highs

Short term outlook offers 1-2 weeks of cooling, of around 2-4%.

The m/t outlook remains bullish, not least as the fed continue to regularly raise rates, which is bullish, especially for the financials.
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Looking ahead 

M - Housing market index
T - Housing starts
W - Existing home sales, EIA
T - Weekly jobs, Phil' fed, FHFA house price index, leading indicators
F -
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear by 5pm EDT on Monday.

Friday, 15 June 2018

Witchy Friday

US equity indexes ended the week on a somewhat mixed note, sp -2.8pts (0.1%) at 2779. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled -1.2% at 11.98. Near term outlook offers basic technical necessity of sp'2718.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, spooked on further trade/tariff chatter. The sp' saw a morning low of 2761, before a mini ramp in mid afternoon. The closing hour saw a touch of renewed weakness.

Volatility remained broadly subdued (intra high 13.16), with the VIX settling fractionally lower in the upper 11s. Near term outlook offers sp'2718, which should equate to VIX 15/16s. That will do nothing of significance to dent the m/t equity bullish trend.
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Bonus chart: China, monthly


With trade/tariff issues, the Shanghai comp' is currently -2.4% at 3021, the lowest level since May 2017. S/t outlook is bearish, with the 3K long-stops set to be washed out.

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Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 14 June 2018

Another day of mostly chop

 US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +6pts at 2782. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and +0.5% respectively. VIX settled -6.3% at 12.12. Near term outlook offers weakness into the weekend, with a quad-opex target of 2755, and 2718 next week.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

Suffice to add, it was another day of mostly minor chop, with the sp' unable to break/hold above resistance of 2789/91. However, the Nasdaq comp' notably broke a new historic high. Volatility remained subdued, and melted to the low 12s. Near term outlook offers cooling into the weekend, and that should carry across into next week.

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Goodnight from London
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