Saturday, 28 March 2015

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +4pts @ 2060 (intra low 2052). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.7% respectively. After significant net weekly declines, near term outlook offers renewed weakness next week, first downside target is the 2039 low.. and then the rising 200dma.. currently around 2010.


sp'daily5



Dow


Summary

Little to add

Friday was a relatively subdued day... but one that doesn't offer a clear floor/turn. Certainly, another test of the 2039 low from March'11th looks due.. after some likely Monday morning gains in the sp'2070s.
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Closing update from Riley


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a little more later...

Friday, 27 March 2015

VIX cools into the weekend

It was a mixed day in VIX land, with a kooky downside spike in early trading to 14.19, then turning fractionally positive to 15.83, but settling -4.6% @ 15.07. Near term outlook offers renewed equity downside.. with VIX 20s 'briefly' viable next week.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3



VIX'weekly



Summary

*the VIX saw a net weekly gain of a very significant 15.75%.
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So.. an intra week low of just 12.58, but then soaring to 17.19 - which was also the exact high from March'11th, when sp' was 2039.

All things considered, there looks to be another opportunity for the equity bears next week.. and if the 2039 low can be taken out.. then VIX will be trading (if briefly) in the low 20s.. as offered by the bigger weekly cycle.
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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +4pts @ 2060 (intra low 2052). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.7% respectively. After significant net weekly declines, near term outlook offers renewed weakness next week, first downside target is the 2039 low.. and then the rising 200dma.. currently around 2010.


sp'60min


Summary

*closing hour drama.. as INTC rumoured to be buying ALTR
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... and yet another week at the world's most twisted and rigged casino comes to a close.

Certainly, a week for the equity bears.. with the post FOMC retrace low of sp'2085 failing to hold.. and then giving another 40pts of downside to a Wed' floor of 2045.

All things considered.. bears should have another chance at breaking the 2039 low.. which will offer at least a test of the 200dma in the 2010s by next Tue/Wed.

Have a good weekend.

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*The usual bits and pieces across the evening.. .to wrap up the week
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4.33pm... The Yellen is now answering questions....



'May be warranted'.  Hmmm

Considering price structure, an early Monday gain into the sp'2070s still looks more probable... unless the Greeks can upset the market cart first!

3pm update - into the weekend with Yellen

US equities are effectively flat lining around sp'2058/60. Yellen is due to make an appearence at a Fed conf' in San Francisco. There remains threat of a price snap (more inclined to the upside) in the closing hour. Regardless of the exact close though, it has been a week for the bears.. with sig' net weeky declines for all indexes.


sp'15min



sp'weekly



Summary

A tricky close to call, and with the smaller 5/15/60min cycles as they are.. the bias will be to the upside.. even though we're set for sig' net weekly declines.

notable weakness, momo stocks, TSLA -4.1%
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..awaiting to see if the market snaps around 3.45pm.. when the Yellen is due.



3.18pm.. market awaiting Yellen....


Could get a little wild in the closing 15 minutes... probably to the upside.

*according to clown finance TV, there WILL be a press release at 3.45pm.. so there is a MAJOR threat into the close of a 'stupid spike'.

That does NOT negate renewed downside next week though....


3.32pm.. price action remains incredibly tight... the setup favours bulls... not least if short-stop cascade begins....

... get ya popcorn ready!


3.39pm.. Market already starting to break upward.. sp'2062...


3.46pm.. INSANE jump in INTC


Woahhhhhhhhh... what is going on there?
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3.47pm.. Post Yellen press release.. no real spike in the main market.. but overall still inclined to the upside.


3.55pm. INTC in talks to buy Altera corp.