Thursday, 23 October 2014

3pm update - Transports entering the stratosphere

Whilst the main market continues to climb, the real hyper strength is in the 'old leader' - Transports, higher by a huge 2.6%, into the 8500s. A new historic high in the Trans would be a major problem to hopes of renewed weakness in November.


Trans, daily



Summary

So, even if the sp' gets stuck in the 1960s.. along with Dow 16900s, ... if the Transports starts breaking new highs, it will likely rule out any kind of November 'crashy' action.
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For now.... its a case of wait and see how far the bull maniacs can push this...into next Wednesday.

VIX is naturally re-crushed, -11% in the upper 15s.
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*AMZN earnings at the close.... I'll look for a ($1.10/30) loss... but hell, across the last few years, even when AMZN posts lousy numbers, the stock often still ramps.
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3.07pm.. market a little twitchy on some kind of 'Ebola news'.

sp'5min....


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3.22pm.. So.. an Ebola headline knocks 10pts off the sp'500...  twitchy market.

3.30pm... As explosions rock London.... (pre Nov' 5th terror celebrations)... the market is stuck around 1950.

Certainly, this cooling is helping to ease the concern that we'll just continue on a hyper ramp..straight to new highs.
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... awaiting AMZN earnings...... due immediately at the close.

2pm update - baby bull flag

US equities are holding very significant gains of around 1.5-2.0% for most indexes. Price structure is a baby bull flag on the smaller 60/15 min cycles, and it bodes for 1960s.. whether late today.. or early tomorrow.


sp'60min


Summary

*metals remain mixed, Gold -$12, whilst silver is flat.   Miners are naturally weak, GDX -1%.
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Suffice to say.. this is no market for the bears... at least until next Wednesday afternoon.

Price structure is certainly offering the low 1960s by the close of today... a mere 0.5% from the 'last line'.
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Notable gains, airlines, DAL +3.2%, UAL +2.4%
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2.24pm... Trans +2.8%... if a new high.. it really does serious damage to hopes of a bigger wave lower in November.

12pm update - not far from the upper limit

US equities are holding very significant gains. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, are both strongly higher by 2.3% and 2.0% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued moderate.. and increasingly choppy gains into the FOMC of next Wednesday.


sp'daily5b


sp'weekly7


Summary

*notable weakness, metals, Gold -$13, which is impacting the miners, GDX -1.5%
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The weekly 'rainbow' candle started the week red...  soon turned blue, and is now outright bullish green. This is not unexpected though... but the bigger bearish outlook will have to get dropped on any sustained price action >1970.

Its day' 6 UP, and there is zero sign of this madness ending until next week.

There seems zero point in being short the market until the next Fed announcement is out of the way. Even then, if we're sustainably holding >1970... then arguably, shorts would be off the agenda.

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VIX update from Mr T.


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time for a long lunch...   back at 2pm

11am update - renewed strength

US equities push to new cycle highs on what is day'6 UP, since the sp'1820 low. VIX offered an opening reversal.. but failed. Metals are mixed, Gold -$13, whilst Silver is flat. Oil is building strong gains, +1.5%.


sp'daily5


GLD, daily


Summary

*I realise many out there are still calling a floor in the metals.. and miners, but no... the broader weakness remains. What was most notable about last week, despite some real upset in the US capital markets... Gold barely caught any kind of 'fear bid'.
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So.. new cycle highs of sp'1954, and we're within 0.7% of my 'last line'.

Regardless of the immediate term, I'm going to hold to a 'no shorts' policy until the next FOMC announcement is out of the way.
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Notable strength: oil/gas drillers, RIG +4%, SDRL +3%
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11.02am.. The miner ETF of GDX -1.4% @ $20.15... set to lose the 20s... taking out the 2013 low... inline with weak metals.

I see GDX in the mid teens... as a given... the only issue is whether $10... if Gold $900....

Regardless... zero point in being long miners for another 6-12 mths.


11.10am.. sp'1956... VIX 15s..... this is starting to get a little crazy.... no doubt the QE fuel... the penultimate one is helping.

AMZN +0.9%... ahead of earnings at the close.... most stupidly valued stock in the entire market.