Monday, 11 December 2017

Sleepy Monday

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +8pts at 2659. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled -2.5% at 9.34. Near term outlook offers a little cooling to the sp'2640/30s. More broadly, new historic highs in the 2670/80s are due before year end.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was a rather sleepy start to the week, with pretty subdued price action. Of the six main indexes, 4 were net higher, whilst the Trans/R2K settled a little weak. I'd argue the latter two are an early warning of (moderate) weakness in the main market within a day or two.

Market volatility remained very subdued, with the VIX lower for a fifth day. Having seen 9.28 this afternoon, its no stretch to see the 8s... or even the 7s within the near term, if only on a 'flash print' basis. Those often happen with an FOMC announcement of course, as is due this Wed' at 2pm.

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Goodnight from London
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Saturday, 9 December 2017

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a very mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +2.1% (Trans), +0.3% (sp'500), to -1.0% (R2K). Near term outlook offers a little chop, but with new historic highs due into year end. More broadly, 2018 is set to offer significantly higher levels.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


A net weekly gain of 0.35%, with a notable new historic high of 2665. Note the upper bollinger on the monthly chart, currently offering the 2690s. As things are, the sp' is on track for a NINTH consecutive net monthly gain, with only March settling net lower.

Best guess: near term chop, but no price action <2600 for the remainder of the year. Indeed, new historic highs look due before year end, at least to the 2680s. More broadly, 3K is now a given, whether by late spring or the summer, it should make little difference to those broadly long. The next key fib' number is 3047. Any price action >3100 would be decisive, and offer a straight run to 3900/4000.

Equity bears have nothing to tout unless a bearish monthly close. For me, that would equate to a monthly settlement under the key 10MA, which is currently at 2491, and rising by 25/30pts a month.
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Nasdaq comp'


The tech saw a fractional net weekly decline of -0.1%. The Nasdaq comp' was the lagged this week, and the only one of the six main indexes that failed to break a new historic high. The 7000s remain probable before year end. The 8000s are a valid target by mid 2018. As I've said for a very long time, 'CompQ at 10K' is a valid target.


Dow


The mighty Dow saw a moderate net weekly gain of 0.4%, having seen a new historic high of 24534. The upper bollinger will act as resistance in the 24500s. The next soft psy' threshold is 25k, and that will be far more viable in January. The next key fib' level is 26702.


NYSE comp'


The master index saw a fractional net weekly gain of 0.2%, having broken a new historic high of 12724. Upper bollinger is offering the 12800s.13K looks out of range until early 2018. Only bearish with a monthly close <12k.


R2K


The second market leader struggled this week, with a net decline of -1.0% to 1521, but with a new historic high of 1559. The 1600s look due in early 2018. Its notable that a few in the semi-mainstream are finally starting to talk about 'R2K @ 2K'. I will note that Oscar Carboni in a recent video did allude to a grander target of 2500, although he gave no specific time frame.


Trans


The old leader - Transports, lead the way this week, with a net gain of 2.1%, breaking a new historic high of 10504. Note the upper bollinger, currently in the 10600s. The 11000s look a given by Feb/March, with the 12000s by late summer. It is notable that higher oil/fuel prices will be a drag on the transports, although that should be fully countered by general US/world economic growth. Only bearish if <9500.
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Summary

A bullish week, with 5 of the 6 main indexes breaking new historic highs, only the Nasdaq is lagging.

More broadly, ALL six indexes are strongly bullish, set to climb into year end, and very likely at least into late spring/early summer 2018.

Most indexes have around 5% of downside buffer before the m/t trends - from early 2016, would be challenged.

Equity bears have nothing to tout unless the majority of indexes see a monthly settlement under their respective monthly 10MAs, and that sure doesn't look likely until at least summer 2018.


sp'daily6 - YTD price performance


Nasdaq is leading the way, currently +27.1%, the sp +18.4%, with the R2K lagging, but still a very respectable 12.1%. 
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Looking ahead

M - -
T - PPI, US T-budget
W - CPI, EIA Pet' report

The FOMC will issue a press release at 2pm. It will detail a 25bps increase in rates to a new target range of 1.25-1.50%. There will likely also be an update on the QT program.

Fed chair Yellen will host a press conf' at 2.30pm, her last big public appearance as the most powerful financial person on the planet. That will likely last around an hour.

T - Weekly jobs, retail sales, import/export prices, busin' invent'
F - Empire state, indust' prod'. QUAD-OPEX.
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 6pm EST on Monday.

Friday, 8 December 2017

Gains into the weekend

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +14pts at 2651. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. VIX settled -5.7% at 9.58. Near term outlook offers a little cooling, but broadly, the year end target of 2683 remains on track.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and held gains into the weekend. Volatility was naturally ground lower for a fourth consecutive day, with the VIX notably back in the 9s. The 8s, even 7s are a viable threat before year end, not least if sp'2680/2720 zone.
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T-14 trading days left of 2017
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will appear Sat' 12pm EST, and will detail the US equity indexes