Saturday, 18 January 2020

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +2.8% (Trans), +2.3% (Nasdaq comp'), +2.0% (SPX), +1.8% (Dow), to +1.6% (NYSE comp').


Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes

sp'500


The SPX climbed for the 13th week of 15, breaking a new historic high, settling +64pts (2.0%) to 3329. Weekly RSI 79s, the highest since Jan'2018. Price momentum ticked upward, and is now on the very high side. For now, there is absolutely zero sign of a ceiling/turn.


Nasdaq comp'


The 14th weekly gain of 16, breaking a new historic high of 9393, settling +210pts (2.3%) at 9388. RSI 80s, the highest since Jan'2018.


Dow


The mighty Dow climbed for the 11th week of 15, breaking a new historic high of 29373, settling +524pts (1.8%) at 29348. RSI 75s, the highest since Jan'2018.


NYSE comp'


The master index climbed for the 13th week of 15, settling +225pts (1.6%), at a new historic high of 14183.


Trans


The old leader - Transports, the fifth week higher of six, settling +304pts (2.8%) at 11278. I would keep in mind the Sept'2018 historic high of 11623, and that is clearly viable before end month.



Summary

All five equity indexes saw significant net weekly gains.

The Transports lead the way higher, whilst the NYSE comp' lagged.

The SPX, Nasdaq comp', Dow, and NYSE comp', broke new historic highs.

Whilst price momentum is at highs not seen since Jan'2018, there is zero sign of a ceiling/turn in any of the main indexes.



Looking ahead

It will be a short, but busy four day week...

Earnings:

M - LOGI
T - HAL, UBS, NFLX, IBM, UAL, COF, AMTD, IBKR,
W - JNJ, ABT, ALLY, BKR, KMI TXN, TER, STLD
T - PG, CMCSA, AAL, LUV, JBLU, UNP, INTC, ISRG, SWKS, ETFC
F - AXP, NEP, NEE, BUD
-

Econ-data: *to-add*

M - CLOSED
T -
W -
T -
F -
-

Cruising above the London metropolis

Final note

The US equity market is unquestionably super strong, reflected in a VIX that remains broadly subdued in the low/sub-teens. The ongoing Fed QE is helping juice most asset classes upward. After all these years, I won't be going over the 'transmission mechanism' for that.

A number out there (such as @NorthmanTrader ), also recognise the string of downside equity gaps. There is ZERO reason why most (if not all) of those won't be filled, just as happened in early 2018. 

I'd acknowledge the market could continue to melt upward into the spring, but at some point, its going to break, and we'll likely see a fierce (if brief) washout to 3000/2900s. That will arguably make for an ideal buying/adding zone, as a broad push to 3900/4000 appears very much on the menu.

Another sunset closer to spring

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Enjoy the long weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Tuesday.

Thursday, 16 January 2020

The algo-bot melt continues

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +27pts (0.8%) at 3316. Nasdaq comp' +1.1%. The Transports settled +1.0%. Near term outlook offers broad chop into OPEX, and the long three day break.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and it was enough to generate another set of new index historic highs. Price continued to melt upward into late afternoon. Volatility remained subdued, with the VIX settling -0.8% at 12.32.


Open day Friday

Friday will (likely) be an open day at http://subscriber.permabeardoomster.com
First post will appear by 8.30am EST.

Whilst price action will be inclined to broad chop for OPEX - ahead of a long three day break, I'm sure there will be some dynamic individual movers that will merit attention.
--

Yours.. awaiting summer sun
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
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For details and the latest offers, see: Permabeardoomster.com

Wednesday, 15 January 2020

Phase one signed

US equity indexes closed a little higher, sp +6pts (0.2%) at 3289. Nasdaq comp' +0.1%. Dow +0.3%. The Transports settled +0.3%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little choppy, but leaned upward to break new historic highs to sp'3298. The 12pm hour saw US President Trump, and (tier'4) Vice-Premier Liu He of China finally got around to signing a phase one trade deal...


Whilst the US was represented by Trump, there was no sign of Xi, whom I'm sure had 'better things to do'.  The afternoon saw a minor burst upward on the excuse of the Fed's latest beige book, but then price leaned weak to 3280, only to see a micro ramp to settle a little higher at 3289.

Volatility remained subdued, with the VIX settling +0.2% at 12.42. The three day break.... can't come soon enough.
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Post stormy Tuesday

Ray of hope
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
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For details and the latest offers, see: Permabeardoomster.com