Friday, 4 September 2015

Rallying on Goldilocks jobs data?

The week is set to conclude with the monthly jobs data, and with Thursday already having seen another sig' downward swing from sp'1975 to 1944 - settling @ 1951, from a pure cyclical perspective, the market is set to rally into the weekend.


sp'weekly


Trans, weekly


Summary

*it won't take much to push the Trans' net higher for the week, and with two consecutive net weekly gains - with spike floors, it would bode for at least another week or two higher in the rest of the market.
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Equity bulls will clearly struggle to turn the current weekly candle for the sp'500 positive by the Friday close, but there is still a rather clear spike floor of 1903 - a notable higher low.

All things considered, market should battle upward into the weekend, and across much of next week. The sp'2000 threshold looks a somewhat easy target.

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Looking ahead

Friday will be all about the jobs data.. market is expecting net job gains of 223k, with a marginally lower headline jobless rate of 5.2%.
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*I hold a micro AAPL-long position overnight, seeking an exit in the $112s before the holiday weekend.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

It was a day of swings for US equities, with the sp'500 settling +2pts @ 1951 (range 1975/1944). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued upside.. at least to test the psy' level of 2000 next week.


sp'daily5



Dow


Summary

Little to add.

US equities look set to battle broadly upward into FOMC week. First target is the sp'2000 threshold, with the market likely to max out somewhere within the 2010/2050 zone.
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*I hold AAPL-long overnight, seeking an exit into the weekend.
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a little more later...

Thursday, 3 September 2015

VIX continues to cool

With equities closing moderately higher, the VIX remained in cooling mode, although was briefly positive (intra high 26.31), settling -1.8% @ 25.61 (intra low 23.45). Near term outlook is for renewed equity strength to at least sp'2000.. and that should equate to VIX 20/19.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3


Summary

Little to add.

VIX remains cooling from last Monday's hyper spike of 53.29.

If sp'2000 next week, then VIX is likely to at least test the 20 threshod.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

It was a day of swings for US equities, with the sp'500 settling +2pts @ 1951 (range 1975/1944). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued upside.. at least to test the psy' level of 2000 next week.


sp'60min



Summary

*closing hour.. moderate chop... and despite a new intra low of sp'1944, this was certainly nothing for the equity bears to get overly excited about.
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A somewhat tiresome day... so this needs to be short!

Suffice to say.. opening gains - as inspired by Draghi.. then a natural wave lower to the 1950 threshold.

No doubt a fair few bulls were twitchy this afternoon, but all things considered, the broader upward trend from sp'1867 is comfortably intact, and we're set for the sp'2000s next week.

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*I hold a micro long-AAPL position overnight.. seeking an exit in the 112/113s tomorrow.
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more later... on the VIX