Wednesday, 8 July 2015

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes closed moderately higher, having swung from a morning low of sp'2044, settling +12pts @ 2081 (intra high 2083). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.2% and 0.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers some chop, but with broader upside into August.


sp'daily5



Trans


Summary

Suffice to add... it was a day for the equity bears and bulls! Bears had plenty of opportunity to exit in the sp'2040s... whilst bulls had a better place to go long. 

There are a great many reversal daily candles on many charts, and all are suggetive we have a key cycle low of sp'2044... with VIX having maxed out at 19.80 (June 30th'.

Best guess... 2044 holds as a low... with broad upside into August. Whether some indexes - notably the Dow, sp'500, or even NYSE comp' can break marginal new histotic highs in the next up wave... difficult to say.

What is clear... today was surely a day for the bears to have made a run to the EXIT door.

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a little more later...

Tuesday, 7 July 2015

VIX divergence

Whilst equities put in a new cycle low of sp'2044, the VIX put in a marginally lower high of 19.20. With equities rallying into the close, the VIX turned negative, settling -5.4% @ 16.09. Near term outlook offers a little equity chop... but with broad upside into August.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3


Summary

Suffice to say.. we very likely have a key VIX cycle high of 19.80 (June 30th').

RE: divergence..

There have been a fair few instances over the last few years where the VIX will put in a marginally lower high... whilst equities put in a marginally lower low.. to complete a multi-week down cycle. That seems to be the case today.

There will of course be further sporadic Greek news headlines in the days ahead, but from a pure chart perspective... we have a VIX top... and an equity floor.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US indexes closed moderately higher, having swung from a morning low of sp'2044, settling +12pts @ 2081 (intra high 2083). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.2% and 0.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers some chop, but with broader upside into August.


sp'60min


Summary

Well, today was a pretty dynamic day, opening with minor gains, a significant reversal, with a morning low of sp'2044.

The afternoon price action was a rather severe short-stop cascade swinging from 2062 to 2081 in just 40mins.

All things considered, we very likely have a key multi-week floor of 2044.. and now look set to push back into the 2100s.

Whether we make new historic highs into early August.. difficult to say. What I do say with confidence is that the market looks set for some 'problems' in Sept/Oct.

*I remain seeking to go long INTC... will assess tomorrow morning.. around 11am.
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - clarifying a turn

US indexes cool a little.. but then see a rather sig' spike into the mid sp'2070s... a swing of 32pts from the morning low of 2044. VIX is reflecting renewed market confidence, -2% in the 16.70s.. a fair way below the morning high of 19.20. Metals remain weak, Gold -$12. Oil has recovered almost all of the earlier declines, -0.4%


sp'daily5


VIX'daily3


Summary

Well... the morning low of sp'2044 is increasingly looking pretty clear... as also reflected in the VIX.

No doubt there will be more sporadic Greek headlines across this week.. and indeed the months to come, but.. for now.... the market looks floored.
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*there remains threat of weakness early tomorrow.... and I will look to pick up INTC-long... if it opens higher... I simply won't chase it.
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3.16pm... a little weak chop... but regardless of the exact close... a day for BOTH the bears.. and bulls.

No one can complain today... bears got plenty of opportunity to exit this morning... and bulls had time to go long from a much better level.
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Yours truly will re-assess tomorrow morning at 11am... seeking an INTC-long... but clearly, anything <$29.50 looks unlikely.


3.32pm.. sp +13pts @ 2082....  38pt swing.. biggest of the year.