Saturday, 19 January 2019

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a very bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +4.0% (Trans),  +3.0% (Dow), +2.9% (SPX), +2.7% (Nasdaq comp'), +2.6% (NYSE comp'), to +2.4% (R2K). Near term outlook offers cooling into end month.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes (monthly candle charts)

sp'500


The spx climbed for a fourth consecutive week, breaking a new cycle high of 2675, settling +2.9% at 2670. More broadly, the spx is currently net higher for January by +163pts (6.5%). Despite the current gain, macd (blue bar histogram) cycle continues to tick lower, as price momentum is at levels last seen in Feb'2016. Note the key 10MA, a mere 65pts to the upside at 2735. Until that is cleared and held above, the m/t trend is arguably still bearish.


Nasdaq comp'


The Nasdaq comp' saw a very sig' net weekly gain of 2.7% to 7157. Price momentum is at levels last seen in Feb'2009, and is supportive of the notion that the cooling from Aug>Dec'2018 is not comparable to 2015/16 or the 2011 down wave. Note the 10MA at 7427, just 3.8% higher.


Dow


The mighty Dow saw a powerful net weekly gain of 3.0%, settling at 24706. Monthly price momentum continues to favour the bears. Note the key 10MA at 24937, just under 1% higher.


NYSE comp'


The master index saw a net weekly gain of 2.6% to 12151. Price momentum is at levels last seen in March 2016. It is far less supportive to the bearish case, and does threaten that late 2018 cooling was comparable to 2015/16 and 2011.


R2K


The second market leader saw a net weekly gain of 2.4% to 1482. Price momentum is around levels last seen in Feb'2016. Note the key 10MA at 1580, which is another 6.2% to the upside.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Transports, lead the way higher this week, with a very powerful gain of 4.0% to 10012. Price momentum is at levels last seen in March 2016. Note the key 10MA at 10547, some 5% higher.



Summary

All six equity indexes saw very significant net weekly gains, lead higher by the Transports and Dow.

All six equity indexes are currently net higher for the year, lead by the R2K and Transports.

YTD price performance:


The R2K is currently leading the way, +9.9%, Trans +9.2%, with the Nasdaq comp' +7.9%. The NYSE comp' +6.8%, the SPX +6.5%, and the Dow +5.9%
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Looking ahead

It will be a short four day trading week.

Key earnings: IBM (Tues'), LVS, UTX, PG, F (Wed'), AAL, FCX, SBUX, INTC (Thurs') 


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M - CLOSED
T - Existing home sales
W - House price index, Richmond Fed'
T - Weekly jobs, leading indicators, EIA Pet' & NG reports
F - Durable goods, new home sales

*The world economic forum will be meeting at Davos in Switzerland, and that will span Jan'22-25. Notably, Trump, May, and Macron will not be attending. Details: https://www.weforum.org

**As there will be an FOMC Jan'29/30th, there will no fed officials on the loose, due to the usual blackout period. 
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Enjoy the three day holiday break.
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Tuesday.

Friday, 18 January 2019

Gains into the long weekend

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +34pts (1.3%) at 2670. Nasdaq comp' +1.0%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +2.6% and +1.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers a powerful retrace into end month/early Feb'.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, and built gains into early afternoon. Further trade chatter/rumours helped inspire things to sp'2675. The late afternoon saw some chop, settling with s/t price structure of a baby bull flag.. suggestive Tuesday will open at least fractionally higher.

Volatility broke a new multi-week low of 17.17, but recovered in the afternoon, settling -1.4% at 17.80, which was notably the opening level. 
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Sunshine for the cheerleaders into opex.

160x max zoom.
The above shots were taken with a Canon SX730HS. A Nikon P1000 sure would be a step upward. Maybe with that, I could see Elon's starship fleet invade in 2025?

Yours.. awaiting the lunar eclipse of Sun/Monday.

Goodnight from London
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk
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*the weekend post will appear Sat' 12pm EST, and will detail the US equity indexes.
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For details and the latest offers, see: permabeardoomster.com

 

Thursday, 17 January 2019

Trade chatter spike

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +19pts (0.8%) at 2635. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.5% and +0.9% respectively. VIX settled -5.1% at 18.06. Near term outlook offers some dynamic chop into opex, and the three day weekend.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little weak, but the bulls managed an early reversal, with most indexes turning positive by mid morning. The afternoon saw micro churn until a news headline that the US might lift tariffs on China to help progress a trade agreement. With the 50dma broken above, there was a clear short-stop cascade, with the spx spiking to 2645. The late afternoon saw some moderate swings, but managing to settle broadly higher.

With equities settling broadly higher, volatility was ground lower, with the VIX settling in the low 18s. Friday is opex, and price action will be further skewed ahead of a three day break. On balance, a settlement around sp'2600 appears probable, even if we initially open in the 2640/50s.
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A fine winter's day


yours.. awaiting the blood wolf moon eclipse, overnight Sun/Monday.
see: https://www.space.com/43031-super-blood-wolf-moon-eclipse-2019-teach-kids.html

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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For details and the latest offers, see: permabeardoomster.com