Saturday, 31 January 2015

Big moves in January

The year has started with some rather dynamic events.. and financial price changes. Oil saw a net monthly decline of -$5.47 (-10.2%) @ $48.24. Copper fell -11.7%. Gold climbed on a classic 'fear bid', +$100 (8.5%). The USD climbed for the seventh consecutive month, +4.8% @ 94.96.


A few bits and pieces... to round up the month...

WTIC, Oil, rainbow'2



Copper, monthly



Gold, monthly'2, fibs


USD, monthly'1


Summary

*its been a long week, I really need to keep this short!
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The commodity moves are pretty incredible... we have huge deflationary pressures (not least in the EU), and the higher USD is not helping. The notable resilience to that downward pressure are the precious metals.


Equity outlook for February?

Despite the recent weakness, with ECB QE-pomo, I'm still looking for continued broad upside. Yet, the January close was a bearish one, and bodes for further weakness in the immediate term.

sp'weekly6


A red weekly candle, with a failure to re-take the imporant 10MA. To my own surprise, we also have a bearish monthly close under the giant sp'2000 threshold, and that now opens the door to the sp'1920/00 zone... as especially suggested on the weekly cycle...

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will be on the world monthly indexes - the most important post of each month!

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities unravelled into the monthly close, sp -26pts @ 1994. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.3% and -2.1% respectively. Near term outlook is increasingly bearish, and the door opening to the sp'1920/00 zone by mid February.


sp'daily5


R2K


Trans


Summary

Suffice to say... an ugly end to the week.. and month.

The two leaders - R2K/Trans, both have breaks of rising trend... and frankly.. near term outlook is increasingly dire - as supported (finally) by both the weekly AND monthly cycles.

Lets be clear.. the door is now opening to the sp'1920/00 zone.. within the next two weeks. Certainly, I didn't expect this, but that is how it is.

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a little more later...

Friday, 30 January 2015

Volatility climbs into end month

With US equities unravelling into the weekend, the VIX built rather significant gains, settling +11.8% @ 20.97 (intra high 22.18). Near term outlook is offering a possible VIX explosion into the 30s... if a daily close <sp'1970. Across the week, the VIX gained a very significant 25.9%


VIX'daily3


VIX'weekly



VIX'monthly


Summary

*I very rarely highlight the giant monthly chart on the VIX. Usually, there is little point... but with the VIX itself becoming more volatile.. I think it is becoming increasingly important.

The MACD (green bar histogram) cycle will turn positive at the Monday (Feb'2) open. The last time that happened was Sept'2011... when the market was being smashed around in the sp'1100s.. with VIX in the upper 40s.
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The net weekly VIX gain of 25.9% is certainly significant, but equity bears should be seeking a break into the 30s.. if sp' fails to hold the 200dma (1973 or so) next week.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities saw further swings, but with very significant weakness into month end, sp -26pts @ 1994 (intra low 1993). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.3% and -2.1% respectively. Near term outlook looks increasingly bearish.. the door is opening to sp'1920/00 by mid February.


sp'60min


Summary

*I bailed on a legacy R2K (long) position into the close. Price action looks stinky, and there seems little point holding across the weekend.
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This afternoon was a major failure for the equity bulls, having broken declining trend, but with a clear spike fail on the hourly chart.

Looking at the VIX monthly cycle... I have to say.. it looks like the market might be looking for a full washout to the low sp'1900s before the next multi-week up wave.

Have a good weekend
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening.. to wrap up yet another week...