Wednesday, 23 July 2014

Volatility continues to melt lower

With US equities breaking new historic highs, the VIX was naturally knocked lower in the morning, settling -5.9% @ 11.52. VIX 10s look a viable weekly close, and the only issue is when will we see single digit VIX?


VIX'daily3


Summary

Little to add.

VIX remains crushed. sub-teens...the 10s look due to be hit again, and 9s are very viable.. as soon as next week if sp'2000s.

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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed somewhat mixed, sp +3pts @ 1987. However, most notable, another set of new historic highs for the sp'500 & Trans. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by around 0.2%. Near term outlook is bullish into next FOMC (July'30).


sp'60min


Summary

*awaiting earnings from FB, T, and QCOM.
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...and another day come to a close.

Suffice to say, price action remains the same. Mostly a combo of low volume algo-bot upside melt..with periodic QE to help.

Certainly, this is no market to be shorting.. and is one to be long..although I realise the notion of going long into the sp'2000s seems pricey.

more later... on the VIX

3pm update - upside melt into the close

US equities are holding moderate gains, with notable new historic highs in the sp & trans. A daily close in the sp'1988/92 zone appears likely. VIX remains crushed, -4% in the 11.70s. Metals and Oil are seeing minor chop.


sp'60min



Summary

*5/15min cycles are offering minor upside into the close, and the 1990s are viable in the closing hour.
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Regardless of exactly where we close, the broader trend remains fully intact, and the sp'2000s look very viable next week.

Whether we close July in the 1990s..2000s.. or 2010s... should make no difference to anyone, not least those on the long side.
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Notable strength: DAL


Headed for the mid/upper 40s into late summer. 
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updates into the close...especially if we do break into the 1990s.
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*earnings due at the close... AT & T (T) , QCOM, and .... FB


3.23pm.. sp'1988...market seems to want a daily close in the low 1990s.

Lets see how many bears will get twitchy..and make a run for it into the close!

2pm update - the upside resumes

A single net hourly decline is probably all the equity bears are going to get today (yeah, I realise how annoying that is to hear). A close in the sp'1985/90 zone looks probable. VIX reflects a fearless market... no matter how many civilian/military planes are shot down.


R2K, 60min


Summary

If you will indulge my own long-index trade for this hour...

The R2K broke out last Friday. A perfect back test against the old down channel.. and we're now in some form of up wave. So long as we don't break back under 1150, I ain't worried.

A weekly close in the 1170s would give me confidence about the outlook into the late summer... where we should be in the mid 1250/75 zone.
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yours...
   in a rather hot capital city.