Saturday, 21 September 2019

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly declines ranging from -3.3% (Trans), -1.2% (R2K), -1.0% (Dow), -0.7% (Nasdaq comp'), -0.5% (SPX), to -0.2% (NYSE comp'). Near term outlook threatens cooling of 2-3%.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


The SPX broke a new multi-month high of 3021.99, but settled -15pts (0.5%) at 2992. Weekly price momentum ticked higher for a fourth week, but remains fractionally negative. S/t outlook threatens downside to tag the upper end of secondary gap to the 2920s, and that would likely equate to VIX near the key 20 threshold. Right now, I don't see any price action <2900 in the near term.


Nasdaq comp'


The Nasdaq settled -59pts (0.7%) to 8117. Weekly price momentum remains fractionally negative.


Dow


The mighty Dow cooled by -284pts (1.0%) to 26935. Weekly price momentum still managed to turn positive though. Note the July historic high of 27398.


NYSE comp'


The master index settled -30pts (0.2%) to 13093. Weekly price momentum continues to tick upward.


R2K


The R2K settled -18pts (1.2%) to 1559. Price has notably reversed on the underside of m/t rising trend, and it leans s/t bearish. First support in the 1520s.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Transports, settled -359pts (3.3%) to 10454. Weekly support in the 10300s.



Summary

All six of the US equity indexes saw net weekly declines.

The two leaders - Transport and R2K, lead the way lower, whilst the NYSE comp' was most resilient.

YTD price performance:


The Nasdaq comp' continues to lead for the year, currently +22.3%. The SPX is +19.4%, R2K +15.7%, and the Dow +15.5%. The NYSE comp' +15.1%, with the Transports lagging at +14.0%.
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Looking ahead

Earnings: NIO, BB, NKE (Tues'), KBH (Wed'), ACN, CAG, MU (Thurs')

Econ-data:

M - PMI comp'
T - Case-Shiller HPI, FHFA HPI, consumer sent', Rich' fed
W - New home sales, EIA Pet'
T - Weekly jobs, Q2 GDP (third/final print), intl' trade, pending home sales
F - Durable goods, Pers' income/outlays, consumer sent'
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.

Friday, 20 September 2019

Mostly quad-opex chop

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -14pts (0.5%) at 2992. Nasdaq comp' -0.8%. Dow -0.6%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.5% and -0.1% respectively.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

With it being quad-opex, it was a natural day of (mostly) minor chop. I note mostly, as there was a brief upset in early afternoon, on a headline that a Chinese delegation had cancelled a visit to some farm in Montana. Seriously, did that really merit an SPX drop from 3009 to the 2984s? The late afternoon saw minor chop resume, with the SPX settling -14pts at 2992.

Volatility picked up a little, with the VIX settling +9.0% at 15.32. S/t outlook leans bearish for equities, especially from Tuesday onward.
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Another group making an escape

Still a touch of summer sun
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Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 19 September 2019

Post FOMC chop

US equity indexes closed mostly on a weak note, spx +0.1pts at 3006. Nasdaq comp' +0.1%. Dow -0.2%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.7% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers chop into quad-opex.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

Suffice to note, it was a day of moderate chop in equity land, although the SPX did come very close to the July historic high of 3027.98, maxing out at 3021.99. The afternoon saw a s/t cyclical rollover, with the SPX cooling to 3003, and settling effectively flat at 3006.

Volatility was ground to 13.31, but settled +0.7% at 14.05. S/t outlook offers quad-opex chop, with the market makers inclined to try to settle the week around the sp'3000 threshold.
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Summer fading away

... the moon also fading away.
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Goodnight from London
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