Monday, 17 September 2018

Headed to the moon

US equity indexes closed on a broadly weak note, sp -16pts (0.5%) at 2888. Nasdaq comp' -1.4% at 7895. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.9% and -1.1% respectively. VIX settled +13.3% at 13.68. Near term outlook offers a turnaround Tuesday, and more broadly... this market still looks headed for the moon into 2019.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

The week began on a weak note, with most indexes opening fractionally lower, and leaning increasingly weak into the mid afternoon. Volatility picked up, but the VIX is still only seeing the 13s, which does not merit any mainstream hysteria.
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Bonus chart: China, monthly


With an overnight decline of -1.1%, the Shanghai comp' is currently net lower for the month by a very significant -2.7%. The Jan/Feb' 2016 low of 2638 is indeed very near. Under that... psy' levels 2500, then 2k. I remain wondering just what the communists are thinking. 
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Headed to the moon

This evening, 6pm PT (2am BST), SpaceX will announce their first private/commercial passenger, who will be on the BFR that will do a loop around the moon. I'd believe that launch will be in 2020/21... which really isn't that far away.

Details/webcast: https://www.spacex.com/webcast




I can't emphasise the importance of BFR, a reuseable vehicle able to do intercontinental hops for Earth, or for travel to the moon and Mars. Massive long term implications for humanity itself.
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Yours truly is rather hypnotised by any moon light. The following three pics (no photoshop, all untouched), taken with a Canon 730. The first is natural, the second is with 100x zoom, and the third with max zoom of 160x.  Frankly, I think they are pretty incredible for what is just a handheld consumer camera.

Natural view

100x zoom

160x (40x optical, with 4x digital).

Ohh, and the next full moon is next Monday, Sept'24th, a day after the official start of autumn.

Goodnight from London
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

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Saturday, 15 September 2018

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +1.9% (Trans), +1.3% (Nasdaq comp'), +1.1% (sp'500, nyse comp'), +0.9% (Dow), to +0.5% (R2K). Near term outlook offers new historic highs.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


The sp' saw a net weekly gain of 33pts (1.1%), settling at 2904. Whilst early next week might well see a brief foray back into the 2880s, the 2920/30s do look viable, with the 2940/50s by end month.


Nasdaq comp'


The Nasdaq saw a net weekly gain of 1.3% to 8010. Note the 10MA at 7881, currently overlapped by rising trend from the April low.


Dow


The mighty Dow gained 0.9% to 26154. New historic highs (>26616) are just 1.8% higher. Any price action above the key fib' of 26702 (>26800s to be decisive) will offer far higher levels in 2019, to 33/34k.


NYSE comp'


The master index saw a net weekly gain of 1.1% to settle at 13050, the highest weekly close since late January. It bodes well for the main market into the autumn.


R2K


The second market leader - R2K, was the laggard this week, higher by a moderate 0.5% to 1721. The 1800s look due by mid/late November. R2K @ 2K looks due by mid 2019.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Transports, was the leader this week, settling +1.9% at 11570, having broken a new historic high of 11623. If WTIC does break new multi-year highs (>$75.27) - as seems probable, the transports will be pressured, although that does not mean the sector/index will be net lower in the weeks/months ahead.



Summary

All six of the main US equity indexes saw net weekly gains

The Transports and Nasdaq lead the way, with the Dow and R2K lagging.

The Transports broke a new historic high, on 4 of 5 days.

The m/t trend is unquestionably bullish, as the market is battling against 'offshore concerns', such as Turkey. Trade/tariffs remain a key issue, but a US agreement with Canada and China look highly probable.

The US midterms will be a brief issue in early November, but once that is out of the way, the market will have a clear run into year end. Original target of sp'3245 looks just about within range.

YTD performance:


The Nasdaq continues to lead the way, currently net higher for the year by a powerful 16.0%, with the R2K +12.1%. The sp'500 is +8.6%, with the Dow +5.8% and the NYSE comp' +1.9%. Its notable that the Transports has been catching up since late June, currently +9.0%.
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Looking ahead 

Key earnings: FedEx (FDX), Oracle (ORCL) Mon', Micron Tech' (MU), Thurs' in AH.

M - Empire State manu'
T - Housing market
W - Housing starts, EIA Pet' report
T - Weekly jobs, Phil' fed, existing home sales, leading indicators.
F - *QUAD-OPEX*

*Friday Sept'21st will be 'open day' at http://subscriber.permabeardoomster.com
First unlocked post will be the pre-market brief at 8.30am. 
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.

Friday, 14 September 2018

Still twitchy on trade

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +0.8pts at 2904. Nasdaq comp' -3pts to 8010. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.9% and +0.4% respectively. VIX settled -2.4% at 12.07. Near term outlook offers a minor retrace to around 2888, before resuming to new historic highs in the 2920/30s.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was mostly just another day of minor chop in equity land, as we're still seeing the market rather twitchy to sporadic trade chatter... not least from Trump.


It is the case though that the reactive down waves are usually only moderate and brief.

Equity bears should keep in mind that a US/Canada trade agreement announcement, is viable at ANY time, and it would likely pull the main market to around sp'2940/50s before end month. A US/China agreement is clearly far more important. Many do appear to recognise the market could see an end year pop of 10%, and that would get us real close to my original year target of 3245.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London

*the weekend post will appear Sat'12pm EDT.
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