Thursday, 24 April 2014

10am update - opening reversal

Opening gains have completely failed to hold. With black candles appearing like a virus, we have a classic opening fail for the bull maniacs. VIX is higher, but there is still unquestionably a lack of    Metals rebound from overnight lows, Gold +$6.


sp'60min


Summary

*I bailed on FCX (long) at the open.
--

Despite the opening reversal, I'm still dubious of the bears. Barring a break <1850, along with the 50 day MA @ 1857.
-

re: AAPL

The daily candle looks VERY vulnerable like that - same as NFLX just a few days ago.

--

To be clear, this is an interesting open, but I still do NOT see the equity bears as having much  hope until next Wednesday's FOMC.

I would change my view on any break <sp'1850. Until then, the broader up trend HOLDS.


time to shop...back in a bit!

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Equity futures are somewhat higher, sp +11pts, we're set to open at 1886, a mere 11pts shy of the historic 1897 high. Precious metals are sharply lower, Gold -$14, with Silver -2.0%. Equity bulls look set for a charge to the low 1900s within the next few days.


sp'60min


Summary

*awaiting jobless and Durable Goods Orders
--

So, with AAPL +8% in the $560s, the Nasdaq is leading the way for the broader market.

Mainstream consensus is likely going to swing strongly bullish today...and Mr Market has a real chance to close the week in the 1890s..which sets up the low 1900s next week.

As for me, I'm short SLV, LONG FCX, RIG..and so far...this morning is looking good.

Good wishes for Thursday trading :)


8.55am.. sp +13pts, ..1888.  Just 9pts below the key high.

Considering the hourly index cycles...the underlying momentum does offer a challenge of 1897 this afternoon.

No doubt, some will call for a double top there, but I'd just say anyone go stare at a weekly chart for 10 minutes.


9.20am.. sp +10pts... we're set to open at 1885. 

Metals recovering a fair bit of the overnight declines.. hmm


9.35am.. EXITED ... long FCX, 34.35... very happy with that one.


9.37am..  a lot of black candles all over the place.... Bulls..should be cautious!


9.40am... BLACK-fail candles...EVERYWHERE. This is kinda interesting open.

Bulls...beware!


9.43am.. R2K is RED....... I've not seen so many black-candles in a very long time.

Clear reversals on just about everything...even AAPL is cooling..a bit.


9.49am.. a full opening reversal...and those black candles sure did warn of trouble!

The next big retrace

The weekly index charts continue to suggest at least a few more weeks of upside - since the recent low of sp'1814. A move into the 1925/50 zone is the target for late May/early June. From there, the equity bears will have yet another opportunity to attempt to put in a key inter'3 top.


sp'weekly9 - fib levels


Summary

The above chart is something I've posted a fair few times in the past few months. Yes, I've certainly adjusted the starting point, and right now, I'm assuming we will reach into the 1925/50 zone.

I'd be surprised if the market can break >sp'1950/2000 this side of the summer.
-


Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs data, along with Durable Goods Orders. If either/both of those come in at least 'reasonable', the equity bulls should be able to push into the 1885/95 zone, bringing within reach, a weekly close in the 1890s - setting up the low 1900s for next week.

*next sig' QE-pomo is not until next Monday.
-


Permabear...picking up positions

I regularly chart/follow a good 75/100 companies each day (never mind the ETFs, commodities), and a few caught my eye last night. Notably, FCX and RIG. Both of the weekly charts look bullish in the near term, so I picked up a small position in both this morning.

FCX actually has earnings early tomorrow, so I'm expecting a sig' move...one way or the other.

Further, the broader down trend continues in the metals, and I also picked up a small short position in SLV. Gold and Silver still look set to break the 2013 lows, and I'm guessing we will eventually see a multi-year floor in Gold, somewhere in the 1050/950 zone.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes saw minor price chop across the day, sp -4pts @ 1875. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1 % and -0.7% respectively. Near term outlook is for the broader upward trend to continue into next Wednesday's FOMC.


sp'daily5


Summary

A somewhat tiresome day, and there really isn't much to note on the broader market.

Price action very much favours the equity bulls. There just seems a lack of any real downside power, and even the sp'1850s look out of range.
-

a little more later...