Saturday, 27 May 2017

The long weekend

US equities closed fractionally mixed, sp' +0.7pts at 2415. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled -1.8% at 9.81. Near term outlook offers a gap fill of 2409/04. More broadly, the sp'2500s are a valid target by late September.


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Summary

US equities opened weak, and then saw micro chop across the day. The Friday fractional gain made for a seventh consecutive gain, equalling the February run.

This morning's revised Q1 GDP print of 1.2% was again notably still weak, but then neither is it remotely recessionary. Its just a case of the US economy 'ticking along'.

Market volatility remained very subdued, with the VIX settling the week in the 9s.
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Podcast from Coffey and Najarian


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Day'3 of summer 2017 :)

For extra charts (usually after 7pm EST each day), see https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will appear Sat' 12pm EST, and will detail the US weekly indexes

Friday, 26 May 2017

Another set of new historic highs

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +10pts at 2415 (intra high 2418). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.6% and 0.1% respectively. VIX settled -0.3% at 9.99. Near term outlook offers a little cooling to 2409/04. Any sustained price action under 2400 now looks unlikely.


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Summary

So much for any weakness ahead of the Memorial day break, as we saw new historic highs for the sp'500 and Nasdaq comp'. Market volatility remains very subdued, with the VIX once again cooling into the 9s.

I'm well aware of some of the very bearish chatter out. A fair few are touting a decline to around the 200dma. That will be in the sp'2270s in early June, and is clear 5% lower. Is it possible? Sure, but just what excuse could the market use to see that kind of down wave?

Other than something 'nuclear' in North Korea... I can't think of anything.
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Podcast from Coffey and Dr J.

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Just another sunny evening in the city.

Goodnight from London
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Thursday, 25 May 2017

A day of minor chop

US equity indexes closed a little higher, sp +5pts at 2404. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by 0.1%. VIX settled -6.5% at 10.02. Near term outlook still offers a sig' wave lower, at least to test the 50dma in the 2370s.


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Summary

Equities opened fractionally higher, and there were signs of a reversal from the opening bell, yet.. the sellers never appeared in even a moderate degree. Instead, it was a day of very minor chop. The press release from the Fed at 2pm saw a few minor swings, but leaning on the upside. The closing hour almost saw a new historic high, with the sp'500 just 0.19pts shy.

Market volatility continued to melt lower, with the VIX briefly seeing the 9s. The key 20 threshold looks as far away as ever.

Next Monday is CLOSED, and on balance, Friday will lean to the quieter side, as many will make an early escape for the weekend. The better opportunity for the equity bears will be tomorrow, or next Tuesday. Keep in mind the monthly close is next Wednesday.
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The summer continues

Goodnight from London
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