Wednesday, 23 May 2018

The chop continues

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp +8pts (0.3%) at 2733 (intra low 2709). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.1% respectively. VIX settled -4.8% at 12.58. Near term outlook threatens a brief washout to the sp'2670s.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities saw yet another day of moderate chop, seeing a low of 2709, but then a latter day recovery to turn fractionally higher. Its notable that today was day eight, within what is a pretty tight trading range of 2742/01.

Volatility naturally jumped in early trading (intra high 14.60), but then cooled into the late afternoon, settling moderately lower in the mid 12s.
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Tuesday, 22 May 2018

Late afternoon cooling

US equity indexes closed on a rather weak note, sp -8pts (0.3%) at 2724. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.1% and -0.7% respectively. Near term outlook offers a little weakness, but nothing sustained under sp'2710. More broadly, the 2800s still look due in June.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened a little higher, and battled to 2742. From there... a great deal of micro chop, and leaning distinctly weak in the late afternoon. Yesterday's opening gap of 2725/12 looks set to be fully filled, before the market resumes upward. The R2K notably broke a new historic high for a FIFTH consecutive day, which bodes well for the other indexes into early summer. 

Volatility was naturally subdued, and despite late afternoon equity cooling, the VIX only settled a little higher in the low 13s.
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Bonus chart: Germany, monthly


The DAX is currently net higher for May by a very significant 4.4% at 13169. New historic highs look due into early summer. Price structure is a clear five waves from the March 2009 low.
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Monday, 21 May 2018

Starting positive

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +20pts (0.7%) at 2733. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.3% and +0.6% respectively. VIX settled -2.5% at 13.08. Near term outlook offers further upside to the sp'2750s, with the 2800s due in early  June.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, helped by lower concerns about a trade war. The R2K notably broke a new historic high for a fourth consecutive day. S/t price structure of a bull flag in the sp'500 has been provisionally confirmed, and will be fully confirmed with a break above last Monday's high of 2742. A broader run into the 2800s is likely now underway.
 
Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX melting into the low 13s. The key 20 threshold looks out of range for some considerable time. 
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Bonus chart: France, monthly


The French equity market is very representative of other European markets. The CAC is currently +2.1% at 5637. Soft target is the June 2007 high of 6168. That does look within range by late summer.
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