Wednesday, 14 November 2018

Another failed rally

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, sp -20pts (0.7%) at 2701. Nasdaq comp' -0.9%. Dow -0.8%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and -0.8% respectively. VIX settled +6.1% to 21.25. Near term outlook offers a 'problematic Thursday', not least if the sp'2680s fail to hold.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, but the rally failed even earlier than Tuesday, with the spx turning negative around 10.50am. From there, it sure wasn't pretty, with further 'spooky news' during the 12pm hour, that May had cancelled a BREXIT related press conf'. The spx saw a low of 2685, just 1pt above the golden fib' retrace, and 3pts shy of fully filling the price gap. The closing hour saw a failed micro rally, ending on a pretty bearish note.

Volatility picked up, with the VIX settling higher for the 4th day of 5. S/t outlook offers the 25/28s


A note on redemption day

There is plenty of chatter, not least from the lunatics on Zerohedge, that due to the Oct' equity drop, hedge funds might see a very large amount of redemptions. Thursday is a key day for this matter, and it does appear a valid concern. The equity bulls should be at least somewhat concerned that the market might fail to hold the sp'2680s, and just spiral lower to the Oct' low of 2603.
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Another day closer to winter solstice


Full moon coming... Nov'23rd
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Goodnight from London
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Tuesday, 13 November 2018

Failed rally

US equity indexes closed on a somewhat mixed note, sp -4pts (0.1%) at 2722. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.2% respectively. VIX settled -2.1% at 20.02. Near term outlook offers a test of key gap support in the sp'2680s.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities began the day on a moderately positive note, and clawed upward to 2754... but that was all the bulls could manage. Notably, 2754 was 7pts shy of the 200dma. Today's candle is spiky... and indicative of a failed rally. The afternoon saw the spx turn moderately lower... lead by the Dow.

Volatility saw minor swings, with a low of 19.11, and settling around the key 20 threshold. S/t outlook leans to the equity bulls. Thursday will be rather important.
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Goodnight from London
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Monday, 12 November 2018

Bearish Monday

US equity indexes closed very significantly lower, sp -54pts (2.0%) at 2726. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.4% and -2.0% respectively. VIX settled +17.8% at 20.45. Near term outlook offers further sig' downside to the sp'2680s, before next opportunity for a bounce.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

The week began on a very bearish note, with the spx opening moderately weak, and unraveling into the afternoon. The closing hour broke a new intraday low of 2722, and offers further significant weakness ahead of opex.

Volatility naturally picked up, with the VIX settling back above the key 20 threshold. Next target is the minor gap in the 22/23s.
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Bonus chart: Germany, monthly


A Monday decline of -1.8%, with November currently -1.1% at 11325. Deutsche Bank in the $9s is very reflective of underlying EU financial 'troubles'.
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Final note...

I watched Ant Man and the Wasp last evening. A nice fun little movie. Stan Lee had a cameo of course... but today saw news of his death. From here onward, a great many of the super hero movies will be seen a little differently.



We can expect another cameo in the next Avengers movie, maybe even a few other things. In any case... a legendary creator of characters, whom many are thankful for.
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Goodnight from London
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ps... Excelsior!