Tuesday, 19 November 2019

Is Trump a candidate here too?

US equity indexes closed a little mixed, sp -1.9pts (0.1%) at 3120. Nasdaq comp' +0.2%. Dow -0.4%. The Transports settled -0.3%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

The day began once again with a pre-market message from the US President...


Indeed, Nasdaq remains powerfully higher this year, and is the leader of the US indexes.

Equities opened positive, with new historic highs in the SPX, Dow, and Nasdaq comp'. However, the gains were shaky right from the start, with most indexes turning fractionally negative by 10am.

The afternoon saw further minor chop, leaning fractionally weak into the close. Volatility picked up a little, with the VIX settling +3.2% at 12.86.


Is Trump a candidate here too?

On first glance, you might actually wonder if the next UK election is between Farage, Johnson, and Trump. Part of this morning's political mail from...


... the Liberal Democrats, who are the UK's third biggest party. Whilst they have zero chance of winning, they will be more than willing to form a coalition with Corbyn/Labour party. It is very much the case that Trump is very much a part of UK political chatter.

The UK General election is due Thurs' Dec'12th. Results will be pouring in (appropriately) in the early hours of Friday the 13th. A clear result should be known by around 7am GMT (2am EST).

Ohh, and for the record, I'm leaning to a Corbyn/Labour 'shock victory'. Ironically, the market should be pleased with that, as any BREXIT bill would likely have a 'popular vote' tagged to it, and the UK populace would vote against ANY such bill, and thus remain in the EU.

... and if the UK remains in the EU... stronger GBP and Euro, weaker USD... and a weaker USD would pressure almost everything upward. 
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Goodnight from London
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Monday, 18 November 2019

Very good and Cordial

US equity indexes closed fractionally higher, sp +1pt (0.05%) at 3122. Nasdaq comp'+0.11%. The Transports settled +0.02%.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

The week began in pre-market with minor gains, but price took a moderate swing lower on a CNBC report that China was pessimistic about reaching a trade deal.


Very good and Cordial

In mid morning it was announced Powell had met with Trump and Mnuchin. It didn't take long for the US President to issue his personal summary via Twitter...


The fed issued their own version...

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This morning's surprise meeting sure would have made for interesting viewing. I've no doubt all three of them were rather annoyed with each other. Trump increasing states he wants negative rates, which Powell is (currently) against. Mnuchin... well, he'd surely rather be anywhere else. 

The afternoon saw new historic highs (if fractional) in the SPX, Dow, and Nasdaq comp'.

Volatility remained subdued, with the VIX settling +3.4% at 12.46.
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Goodnight from London
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Saturday, 16 November 2019

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for most US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +1.2% (Dow), +0.9% (SPX), +0.8% (Nasdaq comp'), +0.6% (NYSE comp'), to -1.7% (Trans).


Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes

sp'500


The SPX climbed for a sixth consecutive week, breaking a new historic high, settling +27pts (0.9%) at 3120. Price momentum continues to tick upward. M/t rising trend from Dec'2018, will be in the 2940s next week.


Nasdaq comp'


Tech climbed for a seventh consecutive week, +65pts (0.8%) at 8540.


Dow


The mighty Dow climbed for the 5th week of 6, +323pts (1.2%) to a new historic high of 28004.


NYSE comp'


The master index climbed for a sixth week, settling +84pts (0.6%) to 13492. The Jan'2018 historic high of 13637 is very near.


Trans


The old leader struggled, settling net lower for the week by -190pts (1.7%) to 10876.



Summary

Four indexes were net higher for the week, with one net lower.

The Dow is leading the way higher, whilst the Transports was sig' lower.

The SPX, Dow, and Nasdaq comp' broke new historic highs.

More broadly, all five indexes are holding above their respective monthly 10MA.

YTD price performance:


The Nasdaq comp' continues to lead for the year, currently +28.7%. The SPX +24.5%, with the Dow +20.0%. The NYSE comp' and Transports are both +18.2%.



Looking ahead

Earnings:

M -
T - HD, KSS, TJX, MDT, URBN
W - TGT, LOW, LB
T - M, JWN, GPS
F - FL, SJM
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Econ-data:

M - Housing market index
T - Housing starts
W - EIA Pet' report, FOMC mins (2pm)
T - Weekly jobs, Phil' fed, existing home sales, leading indicators
F - PMI comp', consumer sent'
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.