It was a bullish week for most US equity indexes,
with net weekly changes ranging from +1.5%
(Dow), +1.4% (Transports), +1.0% (Nasdaq comp'), +0.8% (SPX), +0.2% (NYSE comp'), to
-0.4% (R2K).
Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes (weekly candle charts)
sp'500
The SPX broke a new historic high, the fifth week higher of six, settling +23pts (0.8%) at 3013.
Nasdaq comp'
The Nasdaq broke a new historic high of 8245, settling +82pts (1.0%) to 8244.
Dow
The mighty Dow lead the way higher this week, breaking a new historic high of 27333, settling +409pts (1.5%) at 27332.
NYSE comp'
The master index settled +23pts (0.2%) to 13234.
R2K
The R2K was the laggard this week, settling net lower by -5pts (0.4%) to 1570.
Trans
The 'old leader' - Transports, settled +152pts (1.4%) to 10637. The weekly candle has a pretty powerful floor spike from 10260. Note weekly price momentum has turned positive.
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Summary
Five of the six US equity indexes saw net weekly gains.
The Dow and Transports lead the way higher, whilst the R2K settled moderately lower.
The SPX, Dow, and Nasdaq comp' broke new historic highs.
YTD price performance:
The Nasdaq comp' continues to lead the US market higher, currently net higher for the year by 24.2%. The SPX is +20.2%, with the mighty Dow +17.2%. The R2K and NYSE comp' are both +16.4%, with the Transports lagging, but still higher by a considerable 16.0%.
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Looking ahead
A busy week is ahead, as Q2 earnings begin to pour in...
 |
| Q2 earnings to begin |
Earnings:
M - C, JBHT
T - JPM, WFC, GS, SCHW, JNJ, CSX, UAL IBM, BSX
W - BAC, ABT, LVS, KMI, NFLX, EBAY, AA
T - UNH, BX, ALLY, MS, HON, UNP, CHWY, MSFT
F - AXP, SLB, CLF
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Econ-data:
M - Empire state manu'
T - Retail sales, import/export pri', indust' prod', bus' invent', housing market indx
W - Housing starts, EIA Pet', Fed Beige book
T - Weekly jobs, phil' fed, leading indi'
F - Consumer sent'. *OPEX*
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Final note
We have just 13 trading days until the July 31st FOMC, when rates can be expected to be cut by -25bps to 2.00/2.25%. Further, I'd look for the fed to end QT, two months ahead of schedule, as a consolation prize to those who wanted a -50bps cut.
At best, the equity bears might manage a washout to around the sp'2900 threshold before end month. From there, the initial market reaction to rate cut'1, can be expected to be positive.
Lets be clear though, even some of the cheerleaders recognise that if Q2 earnings come in weaker than expected, the fed cutting rates will do nothing to fix any underlying corporate or economic weakness into year end/early 2020.
For the Fibonacci people out there...
The SPX is just 34pts from the next giant fib' extension of 3047. Its notable that the market was 4pts shy in May 2015, before rolling over. Any daily closes >3047 would offer another 30% higher to near 4K.
In any case, lets see how earnings come in, and how the market reacts to rate cut'1.
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Yours, another day... and year older.
Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.
