Equities whacked

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -35pts at 2438. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.2% and -1.7% respectively. VIX settled +44.4% at 16.04. Prime target of sp'2435 is due on Friday. Things would turn exceptionally bearish with a weekly close of sp <2425 and VIX >15.20.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, and for the first time since May 17th, the market slid lower across the day. Even Trump didn't help in the late afternoon, as he complained about himself not making 'strong enough' remarks about North Korea.

With equities significantly lower, market volatility jumped at the open, and climbed across the day, with the VIX settling at the highest level since Nov'8th 2016.
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A special note

For those of you who don't subscribe to me, I wanted to make something clear, as the next post here will not be until after the Friday close.

If we see a Friday close <sp'2425, and with VIX settling in the 14s (>15.20 to be decisive), it would merit alarm bells for next Monday.

If both of those parameters are seen tomorrow - around 3.45pm EST, the cautious bulls will bail into the weekend.

... and the bolder bears will launch 'mini-crash' speculative short positions into the weekend.
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Sunset, London city, 3.20pm EST

Extra charts in AH (usually after 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk 

Goodnight from London
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Washing out

US equity indexes closed somewhat mixed, sp -0.9pts at 2474. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and -0.9% respectively. VIX settled +1.4% at 11.11. Near term outlook offers a washout within the sp'2435/25 zone, before resuming upward to the 2500s in September.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, whilst most other world markets saw sig' declines. There was naturally a bounce, with most indexes leaning upward into the close.

Yesterday's high of 2490.87 marks a key short term high. Prime downside target remains 2435, as a partial gap fill of 2435/25 remains a very basic target.

Market volatility is finally picking up, with the VIX opening in the 12s, and managing to settle higher (if fractionally) for a second day. SP'2435 would arguably equate to the mid teens... much like the washout in mid May.
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Something to consider

Its a huge issue, but I thought I would throw this one out there...

sp'weekly5 - wave count/fib retrace.

A 50% retrace of the gains from 2009 would take the US market to the mid 1500s, an effective back test of the 2000/2007 double top.

To be clear though, right now, there is still zero reason for anyone (other than day trading maniacs) from attempting to short this market, as the mid term trends are still (almost entirely) intact.
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*ohh, and yes... commodities, oil/metals have largely failed to participate, but I thought I'd leave the legacy note (from 2-3 years ago) on there.

Goodnight from London
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Another pair of new highs

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -5pts at 2474 (intra high 2490). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.6% and -0.3% respectively. VIX settled +10.4% at 10.96. Near term outlook offers a brief washout to sp'2435, before a better chance of the 2500s. Notably, the year end target of 2683 has come within 8% of being hit.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little weak, but then swung upward to break new historic highs in the Dow and sp'500. The latter is far more important, and would support those who believe the market won't see any degree of washout until at least late September.

However, there was a distinct reversal in the 12pm hour, and the market was clearly a little rocked as Trump threatened 'fire and fury' to North Korea.  

Market volatility was crushed in the morning (intra low 9.52), but with equities swinging lower, the VIX spiked to 11.52, and settled in the upper 10s.

If sp'2435, VIX should see the mid 12s. If its a 'one day washout' - like May 17th, the mid teens would be seen.
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Fascinating interview on clown finance TV today with Gundlach.

The full interview is only available for 'pro' subscribers, but here is a clip...

see: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/08/08/jeff-gundlach-i-bought-sp-puts.html

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As ever... extra charts in AH @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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