The Mighty Dow

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +14pts @ 2271. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and u/c respectively. VIX settled +0.6 @ 12.72. Wednesday will see the Fed raise rates, and a 'sell the news' event remains a threat.. even though higher rates are now (ironically) seen as a good thing by the mainstream.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was actually more of a mixed day in market land than most will have realised. Whilst the headline indexes - Dow, sp, NYSE comp', and Nasdaq comp', all broke new historic highs, there was notable weakness in the two leaders - Trans/R2K.

VIX remains a little kooky, as it is usually rising whenever equities are rising, and cools when equities fall! 

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Dow, monthly

Note how the upper bollinger is at 19500, we're trading over 400pts above it, which is exceptionally unusual. Does anyone think we'll be trading under 19k any time soon? The key 10MA - something I regularly drone on about, will only be in the 18500s in January. A break below that looks out of range for many months.

Goodnight from London

Mixed start to the week

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -2pts @ 2256 (intra high 2264). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.9% and -1.1% respectively. VIX settled +7.6% @ 12.64. Near term outlook is for some weakness to at least the 2230s before end week.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a mixed start to the week, with new historic highs for the Dow and sp'500, but with increasing weakness into the afternoon, lead lower by the Trans/R2K.

VIX is reflecting a touch of concern, as the fed are set to raise rates this Wednesday afternoon.

On balance, VIX 14s seem an easy target, and that would likely equate to sp'2230s.. before end of this week. A larger retrace to the 50dma in the sp'2170/80s looks difficult, as broader price pressure remains exceptionally bullish.

Goodnight from London

Weekend update - US monthly indexes

The post election rally continues, with all US equity indexes powering upward. 5 of 6 indexes are regularly breaking new historic highs, only the NYSE comp' is set to follow. Regardless of any sporadic retraces, the broader outlook is strongly bullish into and across much of 2017.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

The Friday close of sp'2259 was a new historic high. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) continues to tick upward, and is at the most bullish level since Dec'2014.

Best guess: a brief retrace of 2-3% before year end, but broadly climbing to the 2300s in Jan'2017. The 2500s are now a realistic target by next May/June.

Equity bears have nothing to tout unless the market is back under the key 10MA, which in early Jan'2017 will be around 2170. Indeed, price action <2100 looks unlikely for many... many months.
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Nasdaq comp'

The tech is currently +2.3% for the month, having seen a new historic high of 5450. The 6000s remain a realistic target by late spring 2017. Things only turn bearish with price action <5k, and that is now 9% lower!


Dow

The mighty Dow continues to lead the way higher, currently +3.3%, having seen a new historic high of 19757. The giant psy' level of 20k is clearly within range before the Christmas holiday. Price momentum is the strongest since Dec'2013. Having broken into the 19000s, the next big Fibonacci price target is 26702.


NYSE comp'

The master index is the last of the main indexes yet to break a new historic high (>11254). With a weekly close of 11191, we're only 63pts away.. a mere 1%. That is clearly within range in the immediate term. Once 11300s, the next natural target will be the 12k threshold.


R2K

The second market leader - R2K, is already another 5% higher for the month, having broken a new historic high of 1392. The 1500s are now a valid target by March/April. A few years ago I mentioned 'R2K @ 2K'. That is clearly still a very long way up, but I wonder when I'll start seeing similar talk from some of the others out there in chart land.


Trans

The 'old leader' was the latest index this week to achieve a new historic high... of 9490, barely 5% away from the giant psy' level of 10k. Price momentum is the strongest since Dec'2014. Things only turn bearish if the tranny trades back under the 10MA.. currently in the 8100s.
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Summary

All of the US equity indexes are powering higher, lead by the Dow. Only the NYSE comp' is yet to break a new historic high.

Time Fibonacci offers two possible turns: Feb'2017, or a seemingly far more probable October.

Price Fibonacci offers the next big numbers of sp'3047 and Dow 26702.

Most indexes now have around 10% of downside buffer before any damage is done to the broader upward trend from the Jan/Feb' lows.


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Looking ahead

It will be the last big trading week of the year.

M - US treasury budget
T - import/export prices
W - PPI, retail sales, indust' prod', bus' invent, EIA report.

The FOMC will issue a press release at 2pm, which will detail a rate hike of 25bps to a target range of 0.50-0.75%. Yellen will hold a press conf' around 2.30pm, and that will last around an hour.

T - weekly jobs, CPI, phil' fed, empire state, housing market index,
F - housing starts, *QUAD-OPEX*


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Have a good weekend
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*the next post will appear Monday @ 7pm EST.