VIX crushed to the low teens

With equities breaking a new cycle of sp'2032, the VIX was under strong downward pressure (intra low 14.89) across the day, settling -11.0% @ 14.99.  Near term outlook threatens the sp'2038/43 zone.. before a key top is in, and then cooling into end month. VIX looks set to begin a push to first key resistance of the 20 threshold


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

On any fair basis, the VIX is now on the extremely low end of the trading cycle, having been cut in half from the 30s to the 14s.

A key turn looks due. First upside target is the key 20 threshold.. with the 25/30 zone just about viable by end month if some 'spooky news'.

VIX 40/50s look out of range until May... but they do look VERY probable.. if sp' 1700s or lower.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +11pts @ 2027. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.1% and 0.7% respectively. Near term outlook threatens a Thursday gap higher to the price gap zone of sp'2038/43.. before a key top is put in. Sustained action >2040 looks extremely unlikely. First soft downside target is the 1940/30 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: moderate chop.. leaning on the upside, with a new cycle high of 2032.

The 2pm and 3pm hourly candles are somewhat spiky.. typically indicative of a top. 
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... and now we have the FOMC out of the way.

The window is now wide open to the equity bears for the rest of the month.
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Best guess.. Thursday gap higher... to sp'2038/43... but then maxing out... and rolling lower into the Friday close.

In theory... given just 1 or 2 pieces of negative news.. we could be sp'1940/30 next week.. and that is certainly a down wave I'd like to be part of.

*I'll seek to short equities and be heavy long VIX tomorrow morning.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - due a key turn

After a fair bit of twitchy price action, equities are pushing upward, as another tranche of equity bears are short-stopped out. No doubt, some truly bizarre bull maniacs are now chasing the market higher, as the Fed have said 'hey.. the economy is improving, but we only need two rate hikes'.


sp'15min cycle

sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*note the hourly MACD cycle now positive, but set to rollover.. whether into the close.. or after a viable Thursday moderate gap higher.
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Q. What am I doing? Well, once Yellen fades away around 3.30pm.. the equity bears finally have an open window into end month.

I might short into the close... but I'm inclined to wait for early tomorrow, as I'm still seeing a key gap fill of sp'2038/43.. with Dow 17405/425.
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On any fair basis.. we're now set for a retrace to the 50dma... as early as next week.. to the sp'1940/30 zone... and that certainly merits a short-trade... with the ECB and FOMC out of the way.

............updates into the close.
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3.04pm.. It is notable that the upper bollinger on the daily is currently @ sp'2045. I don't expect the market to make it quite that high.. but clearly... 2038/43 remains an obvious target before some heavy sellers might start to appear.

Gold +$24.  GDX +5.1%...  those daily candles sure are starting to look crazy strong... and inversely bode in favour of equity bears.
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3.10pm.. chop chop.. but holding moderate gains.. sp'2027... the 2038/43 zone VERY viable early tomorrow.

VIX remains crushed... -9% @ 15.30.... having hit the 14s.

notable weakness.. TVIX -6% @ $5.80...  I'd like an entry in the $5.60/30 zone tomorrow.
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3.17pm.. I can understand if some equity bears are getting real frustrated right now... but we're getting damn close!

Yours truly remains content to wait overnight.... seeking to be short the indexes via SPY... and long volatility via TVIX....

Frankly.. the setup looks rather good (for the bears) after today.
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3.23pm.. so.. now its just a case of whether we open a little higher tomorrow.   I'd imagine Asia/EU markets will rally in sympathy.. at least initially.

sp'2038/43 gap zone..remains viable.. but I'd agree.. time is almost up for this rally from Feb'11th.
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3.31pm.. Yellen being asked by Bloomberg 'Are you considering NIRP with QE?'...

.. of course not, lol.
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3.37pm.. Market melting upward.. ..  headed to the gap zone.

A key turn looks due tomorrow....  ALL equity/VIX cycles will favour the equity bears by tomorrow 11am.


3.40pm.. sp'2031... new cycle high.. VIX 14s.....      we're just 7pts shy of the lower end of prime gap zone !
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3.44pm.. Extremely powerful reversal.. GDX swinging from -2.4% to +6.6%

It'd seem the metals/miners are a leading warning of an equity turn - as they were in mid December.


3.48pm...  sp'2029... VIX 14s... regardless of the exact close... a Thursday gap higher looks probable... and that will be something I will look to short.. not least as the FOMC is now out of the way.

back at the close :)