US equities start the day with some minor mixed chop. Rising support is currently sp'2090 (2097 at the close).. and considering the lack of downside power, that should comfortably hold today. VIX remains broadly subdued, indicative of a market that has zero concern about anything... least of all... China.
sp'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Frankly, until we're back in the sp'2070s and VIX 15s.. I can't take any down move seriously.
Yesterday saw a clear break above resistance, and as its opex week, we're more than likely to just claw our way upward... regardless of China, Brazil... or just about anything else.
notable weakness: DIS -0.8% in the $108s.
miners, GDX -3.1%.. with Gold -$7.... as USD is making a play for the DXY 97s.
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back at 11am
Good morning. Equity futures are a little lower, sp -4pts, we're set to open at 2098. With the break above resistance, the bears face a major problem in holding the market under the sp'2100 threshold this morning. Renewed upside (if moderate) looks due for the rest of the week.
sp'60min
Summary
Hourly MACD (blue bar histogram) is offering a bearish cross this morning, with increasing downside across the day.
However, that was also the case yesterday morning... and we saw how that turned out.
Considering it is opex week, we'll probably hold rising support.. which at the close will be around 2097.
I won't be able to take anything seriously until we see a daily close in the sp'2070s.. with VIX 15s.
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notable early movers..
BABA -1.6%
FCX -1.4%
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Update from Mr C.
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Overnight China action: the Shanghai comp' opened fractionally higher at 4006, but then saw increasing weakness across the day, settling -6.1% @ 3748. Nothing has changed.. the broader outlook remains for another major wave lower.. to the 3200/3000 zone.
US equities closed moderately higher, sp +10pts @ 2102. The two leaders -
Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 1.1% respectively. The VIX settled +1.6% @ 13.03 (intra high 14.52). With the break
above declining resistance, near term outlook is moderately bullish
into this Friday's OPEX.
sp'daily5
sp'weekly1b
VIX'daily3
Summary
A truly lousy start to the week for the equity bears. Opening moderate weakness to sp'2079... only to see a sharp swing back upward... to break and close above resistance. Frankly, equity bears can write off the rest of the week.
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As for the VIX... today was yet another instance where we saw an opening hourly black-fail candle.. indicative of bearish exhaustion. The closing daily candle was itself a black-fail candle.. having been unable to break above resistance in the 14.50s.
It would seem probable that the VIX will remain subdued for the rest of the week. The big 20 threshold looks out of range until September.
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*I remain long-VIX. Had my entry been in the 13/12s last week, I'd have bailed at this morning's open. As it is.. I am not willing to exit for a minor loss (the same was true last Monday).. and will simply wait it out.. into end month... which now seems likely.
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