Volatility remains very subdued

With equities breaking new historic highs, the VIX remained naturally very subdued, settling -2.2% @ 13.04 (intra high 13.90). Near term outlook offers the sp'2130s... which would likely equate to VIX in the 12/11s.


VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*I would not normally highlight the weekly cycle on a Monday. However, note the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle.. it has never been lower since March 2012, and that was on the back of VIX 40s in Oct'2011.

Without question... the broader equity market is increasingly confident... confirmed by very regular new historic equity index highs.
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Little to add.

VIX remains under declining trend/resistance.

Even if there is a break <sp'2100 this week... by Thur/Friday, VIX will likely get stuck around 16/17. The 20s look well out of range on the next up cycle.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +12pts @ 2117. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.9% and 0.7% respectively. With new historic highs in the R2K, Dow, and Nasdaq, there looks to be viable upside to the sp'2130s.


sp'60min

Summary

A pretty tedious day to start the month.... as the market continues to just broadly grind higher.

Overall price action remains muted... on relatively low volume (much of which is of course via the central banks... and via corporate buybacks).

Equity bears have little hope until late April/May. Even then.. a correction will be from much higher levels.. and the resultant cycle low might be where we are currently trading.
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - bullish start to the month

Regardless of the exact close, it has been a start to a new month, with new highs for the R2K, Dow, and most notably.. the Nasdaq Comp @ 5K. Metals remain broadly weak, Gold -$4, with Silver -1.3%. Oil has significantly cooled from earlier gains, +0.9%. VIX remains subdued in the low 13s.


sp'daily5

GLD, daily

Summary

*the declines in Gold are nothing significant, but still.. its a bearish start to the month. Lately, overnight gains has almost always evaporated.
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The daily 10MA is sp'2107... and unless we close under that today... there is high threat of sp'500 following the rest of the market with new highs in the 2120/30s.

I'm certainly aware some are looking for the 2130s into the Friday jobs data... and then a down wave of 3-5%.

Regardless.... broader trend is UP... right?
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back at the close... unless we break <2107.