Closing Brief

A moderately bearish end to the week. A few indexes closed red for the week as a whole, but more on that over the weekend. The VIX closed a touch under 5% higher..not exactly 'inspiring'.

The closing hourly indexes....


IWM

Dow

Sp

Summary

Its been a long and draining week, I can only hope the daily cycle - which has indeed rolled over today, will have some very significant follow through for much of next week. The bears have had a rough time since the June low, which now seems like so very long ago.

Have a good weekend.

3pm update - who wants to buy into the weekend?

With the closing hour ahead, who really wants to 'buy the dip' ahead of the weekend? It will be interesting to see the closing action today.


sp'60min

Summary


The VIX is somwhat off the highs, +7%, can we close at the high of the day +11/12% ?
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I will bail near the close, if I can get 1357/55, otherwise, I'll be content to hold into Monday.

What matters most though, the daily cycle IS rolling over today...next week is the opportunity the bears have been waiting for.

More after the close.
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UPDATE 3.15pm

Just a possible bear flag (pink) setting up..that might play out Monday..and then a bigger move lower on Tuesday to 1350/40

2pm update - battling it out

Its starting to become a bit of a battle out there. The usual bull maniacs who are currently buying the dip are facing a problem. The underlying upward momentum that we've had since last Thursday morning - 6 full trading days ago is now ending.

If we do close down around current levels, we are getting a nice provisional sell signal for next week, and the first hint that the big wave'2 from the sp'1266 low in early June is finally over.


sp'60min

sp'daily

Summary

I'm not very content right now with this market, it still feels like there so much risk of a late day ramp. I've seen it happen so many times over the years, especially on what are often choppy opex days.
 
If we can get down into the 1355/50 range near the close, I'll likely bail, and re-short on Monday.
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Stock of the day...

CMG, daily

Option puts - those few traders who were buying at the Thursday close...

July strike, $340s ,  $100 > $16500     A 'lottery play' for sure, but, a few out there did it.
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