Volatility Update - VIX set for further gains

VIX had a reasonably strong day, and despite slipping lower in early afternoon, showed some strength into the close -having bounced off the hourly 10MA.

On the bigger cycles, VIX looks set to jump into the 30s within the next few weeks, and would equate to sp breaking the recent 1266 low.


vix'60min

vix, daily, rainbow

vix, weekly

Summary

We may well open slightly higher on the indexes early Tuesday. If that is the case, look for red hollow candles to appear by 10/10.30am on the VIX - a warning that any opening index gains will NOT hold.

Indeed, I am holding to my sp' target re-short zone of 1320/25.

VIX remains set to break into the 30s within a few weeks, and 40s are very viable in the latter part of July.

Closing Brief

Market closed mixed in the closing hour, VIX confirms the move lower, but VIX did close well off its highs.

Primary trend remains down.


iwm'60min

dow'60min

sp'60min

Summary

I have chosen to wait to re-short until tomorrow. I have strong suspicion we can still get into the sp'1320/25 target zone at the Tuesday open. So..it will be a case of looking for hollow red reversal candles on the VIX, and black candles on the indexes.

Much more later in the evening....

3pm update - waiting

Mr Market battling it out....its getting messy in the near term...but the bigger picture targets remain clear.


sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

..still waiting to re-short. sp'1317/20 ..looks 'best' guess right now..although they could easily just close it at the low of day.

I will not chase it lower..if we do fall into the close.
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UPDATE 3.31pm ..sp'1315,,,,,still waiting.

3.43pm - going to WAIT until tomorrow.  VERY bearish for Wednesday.