Weak bounce

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +5.99pts (0.2%) at 2723.06. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and +0.6% respectively. VIX settled 8.1% at 15.92. Near term outlook offers secondary target of the sp'2670s before the weekend/monthly settlement.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little higher, and saw a brief reversal to fractionally lower. The market clawed upward into mid afternoon. There was a rollover from 2732 to 2721, which really doesn't bode great for the Wednesday open.

Volatility was naturally in cooling mode, with the VIX settling in the upper 15s.

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Market Fidelity

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -37pts (1.4%) at 2717.  The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -2.3% and -1.6% respectively. VIX settled +25.8% at 17.33. Near term outlook offers secondary target of 2671, before resuming broadly upward.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately weak, once again spooked on trade/tariff concerns. With last week's low of sp'2743 taken out, it was technical open air to prime target of 2718. There was a micro bounce from 2718, but then another wave lower into the mid afternoon to 2698. The break <2700 is highly supportive we'll see secondary target of 2671 hit within days. 

Volatility naturally spiked, and exceeded beyond what seemed realistic. The VIX saw an intra high of 19.61, the highest level since April 25th, settling in the mid 17s.
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Bonus chart: China, monthly

With four trading days left of the month, the Shanghai comp' is -7.6% at 2859. Real ugly, and next support isn't until the Feb'2016 low of 2638.
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Westworld: 2x10: The Valley Beyond.

Westworld is one of the finest shows in recent years, raising issues of AI, and whether humanity has any real degree of free will. Intel and Nvidia will likely be part of the continued attempt to create a genuine AI. Who would run the park? Would it be anyone other than Disney? I'll merely add, I would choose a white hat.

yours, bullish Fidelity
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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a broadly bearish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from -2.7% (Trans), -2.0% (Dow), -0.9% (sp'500), -0.7% (nasdaq comp', nyse comp'), to +0.1% (R2K). Near term outlook offers further downside of 2-3%


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

The sp' saw an intra week high of 2774, but settled -24pts (0.9%) at 2754, as last week's black-fail candle played out. Underlying macd (blue bar histogram) cycle has seen a rollover, and it bodes s/t bearish into end month/early July. Basic downside target is 2718, with secondary of 2671 - the partly unfilled gap from May 9th. More broadly, big target of 2950/3047 still looks on track for late summer/early autumn.


Nasdaq comp'

The Nasdaq saw a net weekly decline of -0.7%, but with a notable new historic high of 7806. S/t bearish with the broader market. The 8000s are clearly coming this summer. The only issue is whether the 9000s might sync with sp'3K.


Dow

The mighty Dow cooled for a second week, with a net weekly decline of a significant -2.0% to 24580. S/t bearish with the main market, as trade/tariff chatter is particularly impacting the international stocks, such as CAT and BA.


NYSE comp'

The master index cooled -0.7% to 12639. Price action since mid March has been rather tight, but leaning on the upward side. S/t bearish, with big support in the 12200s.


R2K

The second market leader - R2K, managed a fractional net weekly gain of +0.1% to 1685, with a new historic high of 1708. First support is around 1650.


Trans

The 'old leader' - Transports, saw a very significant net weekly decline of -2.7% to 10773. Higher energy prices look set to be a drag on the tranny across the summer. S/t bearish with first support of 10500.
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Summary

A broadly bearish week, with five indexes lower, and one fractionally higher.

The Nasdaq comp' and R2K, broke new historic highs.

The Dow and Transports are struggling on trade/tariff chatter, and higher oil price concerns.

YTD price performance...

The Nasdaq continues to lead, currently net higher for 2018 by 11.4%, the R2K +9.8%, and the sp +3.0%. The Transports is +1.5%, Dow -0.5%, with the NYSE comp' -1.3% 
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Looking ahead

Key earnings: CCL (Mon'), LEN (Tue'), BBBY (Wed'), NKE (Thurs'), STZ (Fri')

M - New home sales
T - Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con', Richmond fed'
W - Durable goods orders, intl' trade, pending home sales, EIA report
T - Q1 GDP (third print), weekly jobs, stress test results part'2.
F - Pers' income/outlays, Chicago PMI, consumer sent'.

As Friday will be end month, Q2, and H1, I would look for increasingly dynamic and choppy price action into the weekend.
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