Sunday, 9 August 2020

August evening

An August evening, in the London metropolis...





An aerial transport of the CCP












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yours... preparing for the autumn/winter.

Saturday, 8 August 2020

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from +5.8% (Transports), +3.8% (Dow), +2.5% (Nasdaq comp'), to +2.4% (SPX, NYSE comp').

Lets take our regular look at five of the main US indexes (monthly candle charts, for some perspective).

sp'500
Nasdaq comp'
Dow
NYSE comp'
Trans

Summary

All five of the US equity indexes settled net higher for the week.

The Transports lead the way higher, with the SPX and NYSE comp' a little laggy.

The Nasdaq comp' broke a new historic high.

All five indexes are currently trading above their respective monthly 10MA, with the m/t trend outright bullish.
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Looking ahead

A somewhat lighter week is ahead, at least in terms of scheduled earnings/data. I would especially note earnings for Barrick Gold (early Mon'), and Wheaton Precious Metals (late Wed'), both of which should be good, with extremely positive outlooks.

Earnings:

M - CGC, WKHS, GOLD, RCL, MAR, ON, NVAX, TLRY, SPG, OXY, TME, ZI
T - NIO, HUYA, SYY, LITE, TTOO, LRN, RRGB
W - JMIA, ALT, EAT, CSCO, SDC, LYFT, WPM
T - TPR, AMAT, PRPL, BIDU, IQ
F - DKNG
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Econ-data:

M - JOLTS
T - PPI
W - CPI, EIA Pet', US T-budget
T - Weekly jobs, import/export prices
F - Retail sales, Productivity/costs, consumer sent', busi' invent'.
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Have a good weekend
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*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.

Thursday, 6 August 2020

Positive leaning chop

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +21pts (0.6%) at 3349. Nasdaq comp' +1.0%. Dow +0.7%. The Transports settled +1.1%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened in chop mode, having recovered from pre-market moderate declines. The latest weekly jobs data was an improvement at 1.186M vs 1.435 (prior, revised). Still though, its a horrific print, as the reopening has partly stalled.

The market leaned upward into the afternoon, with the SPX printing a new multi-month high of 3351 in the closing hour, and settling at 3349.

Volatility remained subdued, the VIX settling -1.5% to 22.65.
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A fine end to the day
A fine end to the day
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
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Wednesday, 5 August 2020

Just another day

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +21pts (0.6%) at 3327. Nasdaq comp' +0.5%. Dow +1.4%. The Transports settled +1.3%.

sp'daily5


VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened on a positive note, although the latest ADP jobs data was a monstrous miss from expectations...


... and it doesn't bode well for the Friday BLS Print. Further data in early September will likely be reflective of all manner of underlying problems, which even the Fed can't paper over.

Meanwhile...


CNBC, aka... clown finance TV, are still playing their little games, with a rather overt attempt to direct attention from the ADP jobs data, by calling up Fed VC Clarida. Liesman is unquestionably 'in bed with the fed', although I guess... someone has to do it. Its good work if you can get it.

The afternoon saw considerable minor chop. With a new historic high for the Nasdaq comp', and a new multi-month high for the SPX, it was unquestionably, just another day for the equity bulls.

Volatility remained subdued, the VIX settling -3.2% to 22.99, reflective of a mainstream, with near zero concerns. After all, the Fed will solve ALL the problems, right?

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Another day, another sunset
             Another day, another sunset

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--

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Tuesday, 4 August 2020

Tedious Tuesday

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +11pts (0.4%) at 3306. Nasdaq comp' +0.3%. Dow +0.6%. The Transports settled +0.7%.

sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

 

Summary

US equities opened in chop mode, with the SPX printing an early low of 3286, and reversing upward to break a fractional new multi-month high of 3303. The afternoon saw further tedious minor chop, but with a mini ramp in the final few minutes to a new cycle high of 3306.

Volatility remained subdued, the VIX settling -2.1% to 23.76.
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Still a rare sight
Still a rare sight


Summer won't last forever
Summer won't last forever


Full moon... the early hours of August 4th
Full moon... the early hours of August 4th
--

Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London

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Monday, 3 August 2020

August starts positive

US equity indexes began August broadly higher, sp +23pts (0.7%) at 3294. Nasdaq comp' +1.5%. Dow +0.9%. The Transports settled +0.2%.

sp'daily5

 

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities began August on a positive note, helped by other world markets. The SPX broke a new multi-month high, with the Nasdaq comp' breaking a new hist' high.

The US President not surprisingly commented...


The afternoon saw the SPX break a new cycle high of 3302, with a minor cooling wave in the closing hour. Volatility was subdued, the VIX settling -0.7% at 24.28.

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Extra charts in AH (usually around 5pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--

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Saturday, 1 August 2020

Weekend update - World equity markets

It was a bullish month for most world equity markets, with net monthly changes ranging from +10.9% (China), +8.3% (Brazil), +7.7% (India), +3.9% (South Africa), +2.4% (USA), +1.8% (Russia), +0.9% (Australia), +0.8% (Hong Kong), +0.1% (Germany), to -2.6% (Japan).


Lets take our regular look at ten of the world equity markets.

USA - Dow


The mighty Dow climbed for a fourth consecutive month, settling +615pts (2.4%) to 26428. The July high of 27071 was notably below the June intra high. The July settlement was above the 10MA, bringing the m/t trend back to outright bullish. Momentum ticked upward, but remains negative, and at the current rate, will turn positive just before year end. Next resistance is the Feb'2020 historic high of 29568, but that looks out of range, before a multi-week cooling wave.


Germany – DAX


German equities struggled, the DAX settling +11pts (0.1%) to 12313, although that did make for a second monthly settlement above the 10MA. The June and July candles are rather spiky on the upper side, and indicative of s/t bullish exhaustion. Momentum will be prone to turning positive in August.


Japan – Nikkei


Japan was the laggard this month, settling -578pts (2.6%) to 21710, notably back under the 10MA. The June and July candles were both spiky on the upper side, indicative of s/t bullish exhaustion. The s/t outlook is bearish, with first support at key price threshold of the 21000s.


Brazil – Bovespa


Brazilian equities climbed for a fourth consecutive month, the Bovespa settling +7856pts (8.3%) to 102912, notably back above the 10MA. There is no real resistance until the January historic high of 119k.


Russia - RTSI


Russian equities battled upward, settling +21pts (1.8%) to 1234. Whilst this was a third monthly settlement above key price threshold of the 1200s, it was still under the 10MA.


India – SENSEX


Indian equities climbed for the third month of four, the Sensex settling +2691pts (7.7%) to 37606, the first settlement above the 10MA since January. The July candle is a little spiky, as the market is due a multi-week cooling wave.


China – Shanghai comp'


The Chinese market lead the way higher in July, settling +325pts (10.9%) to 3310. The July candle is notably spiky from around key price threshold of the 3400s, with an intra high of 3458. China bulls need a decisive break >3500 to have confidence of broader upside into year end, whilst bears need to break below the March low of 2646.


South Africa – Dow


The South African market climbed for the third month of four, settling +63pts (3.9%) to 1695, which was the first settlement above the 10MA since Dec'2019. Higher gold prices are certainly helping, for what is one of the top ten producer countries.


Hong Kong – Hang Seng


It was a pretty wild month for Hong Kong, seeing a high of 26782, but settling +168pts (0.7%) to 24595. The July spike high was a distinct fail at m/t descending trend, and notably settling under the 10MA.


Australia – AORD


Australian equities climbed for a fourth consecutive month, settling +57pts (0.9%) to 6058, but still below the 10MA. The June and July candles are both spiky on the upper side, and indicative of s/t bullish exhaustion.



Summary

Nine world equity markets settled net higher for July, with one net lower.

China and Brazil lead the way higher, with Germany and Japan lagging.

Of the ten world markets, the USA, Germany, Brazil, India, China, and South Africa, settled above their respective monthly 10MA, whilst Japan, Russia, Hong Kong, and Australia, settled below.
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Looking ahead

Another busy week is ahead, with a mid size truckload of earnings, and econ-data, some of which will be reflective of a stalled reopening.

Earnings:

M - CLX, TSN, RACE, MPC, CHGG, SPCE, TTWO, SEDG, CRUS, AIG
T - AMRN, BP, TREE, RL, BYND, ATVI, DIS, TWLO, NKLA, WYNN

W - MRNA, CVS, W, TEVA, HUM, REGN, WEN, SQ, ROKU, FSLY, ETSY, ZNGA, WDC, INSG, EP, SONO

T - BMY, CRON, NCLH, PZZA, FLIR, LVGO, NET, DBX, DDOG, UBER, TTD, TMUS, ALT, FTNT, BKNG

F - VIRT, NBL
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Econ-data:

M - PMI/ISM manu', construction, vehicle sales,
T - Factory orders
W - ADP jobs, PMI/ISM serv', EIA Pet'
T - Weekly jobs
F - Monthly jobs, wholesale invent', consumer credit
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Final note

July was broadly bullish for world equity markets, not least for the US, which saw the Nasdaq break a new historic high. For now, there is near zero sign of a short/mid term ceiling/turn.

Despite the attempt to reopen, there remain monstrous economic problems, as a result of the 'response' to Corona. Note the emphasis on response. It wasn't the Corona that destroyed tens of millions of businesses, it was directly due to the lockdown policy of various national governments. It is sometimes darkly amusing to see the mainstream media hacks - not least those on CNN, FOX, and CNBC, talk about how Corona destroyed the world economy, when the fact is that it was actually due to the chosen response.

Staying on the matter of Corona. Do you hear the ticking clock right now? Way back in late January - when it became clear what was coming, I mentioned there would be a 'window of opportunity', running from June to September. We're already half way through, and I will merely add that you might choose to use the time... wisely.

August itself should offer some market drama. The June/July candles for many world equity markets are indicative of s/t bullish exhaustion, as a multi-week cooling wave is overdue.

Then there is the issue of the Fed. Having already bought corp' bonds, it should be clear they will eventually resort to buying equities. I'm currently unsure as to whether they will be stupid enough to follow the dark path of the BoJ and ECB - with NIRP, but regardless... sooner or later, Print Central will be buying stocks, not just in the giant Dow components, but the mid and small caps.

If you think life in the twilight zone can't get any more insane, well, just wait until early November.

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Have a good weekend
--
*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EDT on Monday.