Monday 4 May 2020

Choppy start

US equity indexes mostly closed on a positive note, sp +12pts (0.4%) at 2842. Nasdaq comp' +1.2%. Dow +0.1%. The Transports settled -2.0%.

sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened broadly lower, pressured via other world markets, Trump comments on China, and Buffett/Berkshire bailing on the airline stocks.

The SPX printed 2797, and then churned into the afternoon, seeing a little spike upward to 2844, and settling at 2842.

Volatility was itself a little choppy, the VIX printing 40.32, and settling -3.3% at 35.97.


Your views...


39.7% don't believe negative rates are coming any time soon. I expect Print Central to take rates negative.. whether by year end, or within 2021.


Perhaps the ultimate issue is when the Fed will start buying stocks and/or related stock ETFs. A little over half believe the Fed will buying stocks by year end. Certainly, I see that happening if sp'1700/1500.


There is a broad split on whether the market breaks <2191.


56% expect front month WTIC to turn negative by mid May, as does yours truly. I will just add, that I see the oil ETF of USO as problematic, and would rather short via something like XLE, or even via the Dow components of CVX or XOM.
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