Monday 13 August 2018

A fourth day lower

US equity indexes closed a little weak, sp -11pts (0.4%) at 2821. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled -0.6%. VIX settled +12.3% to 14.78. Near term outlook offers a bounce to the 2850/60s.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was a choppy day to begin the week, mostly leaning on the bearish side. The sp' swung from a pre-market/overnight decline of around -18pts, opening fractionally higher, and clawing to 2843. There was renewed cooling to break under last Friday's low, with a new spike floor of 2819, climbing to 2832, before closing hour cooling.

Volatility climbed for a third day, with the VIX settling just above resistance of the mid 14s. The 17/18s are clearly viable in the near term.

Best guess, s/t upside for 1-2 days to the sp'2850/60s. It won't take much of an excuse to see a bounce. Whilst Thursday generally favours the bears, Friday opex will lean to chop.
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Bonus chart: Turkey'100


A Monday decline of -2.4%, which is arguably somewhat impressive considering the ongoing Lira crisis. Note the macd bearish cross, which does lean to the Turkish bears in the immediate term.
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Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EDT) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
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