Thursday, 19 October 2017

A break lower

US equity indexes closed fractionally mixed, sp +0.8pts at 2562. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.1% and -0.2% respectively. VIX setttled -0.2% at 10.05. Near term outlook offers soft target of 2540/37, that would be negated on any new historic high >2564.11.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, with an early floor of sp'2547. There was a choppy recovery that took the market fractionally higher into the close. Its notable that 4 of the 6 main indexes did settle fractionally lower.

Market volatility remains broadly subdued, with the VIX seeing a cash market high of 11.10 (pre-market high was 11.77), but then cooling all the way back to around the 10.00 threshold.

To be clear, unless we break a new historic high >sp'2564.11, we have a valid s/t high, with initial soft target of 2540/37. More broadly, primary target is the Sept'11th gap zone of 2474/61.
--

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--

If you value my work, subscribe to me.


For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

Wednesday, 18 October 2017

Another quartet of highs

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +1.9pts at 2561. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.8% and 0.5% respectively. VIX settled -2.3% at 10.07. Near term outlook offers a sig' break lower, with first soft target of 2540/37. Its time for the equity bears to make an appearance.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened fractionally higher, and it was enough to generate yet another quartet of new historic highs in the sp', dow, nasdaq comp', and nyse comp'. Price action was a little twitchy though, especially within some of the tech stocks.

Market volatility remains very subdued, with the VIX briefly falling into the 9s today, but settling in the 10s.

Near term outlook offers a long overdue cooling wave. First soft target is sp'2540/37, which should equate to VIX 12s. Even then, that is not something the equity bears should get excited about right? 
--


Here in the metropolis...

A misty autumnal evening
--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.




For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.htm

Tuesday, 17 October 2017

Just another threshold

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +1pt at 2559. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled lower by -0.3%. VIX settled +4.0% at 10.31. Near term outlook offers an overdue sig' break lower, with primary target of sp'2474/61. More broadly, the 2600s remain a given.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened in minor chop mode, but with the Dow soon breaking above the soft psy' threshold of 23k. The mainstream does seem to be increasing focused on each 1000pts higher. This afternoon on CNBC the cheerleaders were tentatively daring to mention 'at the current rate... 25k within six months. There is still no talk of 'hyper bullish', or the notion that this could continue for some years .

Its notable that whilst the Dow and sp'500 broke new highs (if fractional) the two leaders - Trans/R2K, did settle moderately weak. It could be argued they are offering an early warning of trouble. We shall see.

Market volatility remains broadly subdued, although the VIX did manage a close outside of the 9s.
--

Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.


For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.htm

Monday, 16 October 2017

Happy Anniversary

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +4pts at 2557. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.8% and u/c respectively. VIX settled +3.1% at 9.91. Near term outlook offers a long overdue sig' break lower, with prime target of sp'2474/61. Broadly, the US market is super strong, as the 2600s are clearly a given before year end.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

The week began on a positive note, with a trio of new index historic highs (sp', dow, nasdaq comp'). Price action across the last six days has been tediously narrow range, but still leaning to the upside.

With equity strength, market volatility remains subdued, and despite the VIX closing net higher, that still made for a daily settlement in the 9s.

Near term outlook remains unchanged. A sig' break lower is due. If the bears can't manage the sp'2520s by Thursday, then the 2600s could be sought before end month. 
--


The crash of 1987

Today is the 30th anniversary of the Oct'1987 crash. However, it really shouldn't be thought of as a one day event. The market peaked August 25th, and then saw an initial down wave of 8.7% into early September. Price action was choppy, but then leaned back upward into early October.

The Oct 2nd high of sp'328 made for a key lower high, and thus began 12 days of horror. Day 11 was 'crash day', but day 12 did see a lower low, but closed net higher.


sp'daily - 1987


Back in 1987 yours truly was just 14 years of age (yeah, you can do the math on my current age). The previous Friday, the Southern UK was hit with a severe hurricane-strength storm, and its a curious thing that Hurricane Ophelia was nearing the British Isles just last night.

I sure wasn't trading in 1987 (my first trade wasn't until 1990!), but I remember the crash, as I was one of those weird teenagers with a deep interest in finance/economics. The US market soon recovered, but it really wasn't until 1993 that the UK market started to break new highs.


Another 1987?

Will we ever see a one day crash like 1987 again? Well, no, as the NYSE would freeze the market at -7%, -13%, and immediately shut the market on an intraday decline of -20%.

see: https://www.nyse.com/network/article/nyse-increases-resiliancy-during-extreme-volatility

Indeed, something I would look for in the years ahead is for the NYSE to tighten the circuit breaker limits. I see a time when the market will be shut on any daily decline of -5%. Many within the mainstream will of course support such trading restrictions/manipulation. I do not.
--

It was an unusual day in the metropolis...

Weird skies in London, due to remains of Hurricane Ophelia

Bullish October sunshine

For more pics on 'yellow sky', see https://twitter.com/search?src=typd&q=yellow%20sky

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.




For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

Saturday, 14 October 2017

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

It was another bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +0.5% (Transports), +0.15% (sp'500), to -0.5% (R2K). Near term outlook offers a cooling wave of 3-4%, but broadly, the US market remains super strong. The year end target of sp'2683 is just about within range.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


The sp' climbed for a fifth consecutive week, +3.8pts to 2553, with a notable new historic high of 2557. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked higher for a fifth week. The key 10MA is currently at 2487, and will be around the 2500 threshold next week. Core rising trend from early 2016 will be around 2450 next week, notably just under primary target of 2474/61.

Best guess: near term cooling of 3-4% to the Sept'11th gap zone of 2474/61. No sustained price action <2460, with another whipsaw upward to the 2600s. The year end target of 2683 is just about within range, but will require a Dec' rate hike, along with WTIC around $54/55s.

Since the Feb'2016 low of 1810, to this Friday's close of 2553, the sp'500 has gained 41% across 21 months. At the current rate, the sp' will be trading around 3500 in summer 2019, with 4000 by spring 2020.

Equity bears have nothing to tout unless a break of rising trend, and a bearish monthly close. For me, that would equate to a monthly settlement under the monthly 10MA, which is currently at 2423 (and rising by around 35pts a month). I do not anticipate such a bearish close before year end.
--


Nasdaq comp'


The Nasdaq climbed for a third week, with a net gain of 0.2% to 6605, and a new historic high of 6616. The core trend from early 2016 remains comfortably intact. At the current rate the 7k threshold will be within range by year end. First soft support are the 6400s, with secondary of the 6100/6000 zone. No price action <5900 looks remotely possible within the mid term.


Dow


The mighty Dow saw a fifth consecutive net weekly gain, +0.4% at 22871, with a notable new historic high of 22905. Underlying MACD cycle is on the high side, and there will be threat of cooling to the 22200/000 zone, before the next big push upward. Things would only turn bearish with a break of rising trend, which will be in the 21500s next week. Keep in mind the monthly 10MA is currently at 21375.


NYSE comp'


The master index climbed for a fifth week, settling +0.3% at 12352, with a notable new historic high of 12377. Cooling of around 3% to the 12k threshold would be very natural, and would do no damage to the mid term trend, which was recently adjusted, due to a new historic high.


R2K


The R2K was the laggard this week, unable to break a new historic high, and settling net lower by -0.5% to 1502. Short term bearish to 1450. By late Oct', core rising trend will offer support in the 1420s. Unless that is broken, a year end close in the 1600s will remain a valid target. The grander issue is that 'R2K @ 2K' is on the menu in 2018.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Transports, saw a net weekly gain of 0.5%, and that was despite a Friday decline of -1.0%. The weekly candle was rather spiky, having cooled from a new historic high of 10080. Near term outlook is bearish, with the 9600/500s well within range. No price action under the 9k threshold can be expected before year end.
--


Summary

The US equity market remains broadly super strong, with 5 of 6 indexes breaking new historic highs this week.

All US indexes are holding their mid term bullish trends from early 2016.

All US indexes have at least 3-4% of downside buffer before the m/t trends are challenged.
--


Looking ahead

In addition to a great many corp' earnings...

M - Empire state manu'
T - Import/export prices, indust' prod', housing market index
W - Housing starts, EIA Pet' report, Fed Beige book
T - Weekly jobs, Phil' fed
F - Existing home sales. *OPEX*

*There are a few fed officials scheduled, most notable is Yellen (Friday lunchtime), and I believe it will garner live coverage on CNBC.
--

If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html


Extra charts (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Have a good weekend
--

*the next post on this page will likely appear 6pm EST on Monday.

Friday, 13 October 2017

A mixed end to the week

US equity indexes closed broadly mixed, sp +2pts at 2553. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.0% and -0.2% respectively. VIX settled -3.0% to 9.61. Near term outlook offers increasing threat of a natural cyclical rollover. A gap fill of sp'2474/61 remains a technical necessity.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

US equities opened fractionally higher, and it was enough to generate a quintet of index historic highs (the R2K was the exception). It was notable that the Transports saw a very significant intraday reversal, closing sig' lower, on what is key rising trend.

With equities breaking new highs, market volatility remains very subdued, with the VIX settling the week in the mid 9s.

Near term outlook is unchanged. The US equity market is due a 3-4% cooling wave, with prime target of sp'2474/61, before swinging back upward to the 2600s. The 2470/60s should equate to VIX in the mid teens. The key 20 threshold looks out of range for the remainder of the year.
--

Appropriate skies for October Friday 13th 2017.

--
Extra charts in AH (usually around 7pm EST) @ https://twitter.com/permabear_uk

Goodnight from London
--
If you value my work, subscribe to me.



For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html
--

The weekend post will appear Sat'12pm, and will detail the US weekly indexes.

Thursday, 12 October 2017

Do you fear Friday the 13th?

It was not exactly the most exciting of days, with the sp'500 seeing a trading range of just 7.02pts. Tomorrow is Friday 13th, and at least some of you will have a case of Triskaidekaphobia. The daily price momentum cycles are increasingly swinging back toward the equity bears, and tomorrow might actually see some significant price action.


sp'weekly1b



WTIC, daily



Summary

sp: As things are, it won't take much of a Friday fall to result in a net weekly decline. For a bearish engulfing candle, bears need <2520, and that looks out of range. Note the lower bollinger, currently at 2389. That could only possibly be seen if there is a North Korean atmospheric nuclear test, which would surely freak out the mainstream.

WTIC: inventory data was somewhat mixed today, and broadly, oil is mostly just churning around the psy' level of $50. What should be clear, the mid term bearish trend has concluded. An eventual run to the 54/55s looks viable before year end.



Looking ahead

Notable earnings: BAC and WFC.

Friday will see CPI, retail sales, busin' invent', consumer sent'.

There are a quartet of fed officials on the loose, all speaking at some conf' titled 'Are Rules Made to be Broken? Discretion and Monetary Policy'.



Normal service shall resume tomorrow

For you non subscribers out there, I hope you found today's postings at least marginally interesting, on what was a day of very minor chop.

If you value my work, subscribe to me.


For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

Goodnight from London
--

The next post on this page will likely appear Friday 6pm EST.

VIX and Index update

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -4pts at 2550. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled +0.6% at 9.91. Near term outlook offers basic target of the micro gap of 2540/37 before the weekend. The 2474/61 gap zone remains a technical necessity, before a more viable chance of the 2600s.


sp'daily5



Dow



Trans



Summary

sp: a fractional new historic high of 2555.33, but settling fractionally lower. There are two micro gaps to be filled, but more far more importantly... that of 2474/61. No sustained price action <2460 seems viable for the remainder of the year, as more broadly, the 2600s look a given, as earnings are coming in just fine.

Dow: settling -0.1% at 22841. First support in the 22200s, where the 50dma will soon be lurking. Its arguable that the 22200s would equate to the sp'2474/61 zone.

Trans: a new historic high of 10049. S/t bearish with the main market, but it should be clear, the 11000s are just about viable into year end.



VIX'daily3


With equities seeing a day of relatively minor chop, the VIX remained broadly subdued, settling +0.6% at 9.91. Near term offers the 11/12s, with sp'2520s. On balance, it would seem sp'2474/61 would equate to VIX in the mid teens, although it will depend on how fast the decline is.


Looking ahead by 6pm EST

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -4pts at 2550. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers basic target of the micro gap of 2540/37 before the weekend. The 2474/61 gap zone remains a technical necessity, before a more viable chance of the 2600s.

sp'60min



Summary

closing hour action: leaning distinctly on the weaker side, breaking a new intraday low.
--

Despite some weakness into the close, with the sp'500 and the Transports breaking new historic highs, it was still a day for the equity bulls.

I will continue to drone on.... 2474/61 remains a 'technical necessity'... but I am broadly bullish, and my original year end target of 2683 remains just about within reach.
--


Here in London...


Have a good evening
--
more later on the VIX and Indexes by 6pm EST

3pm update - a little weak

US equities continue to lean - if only fractionally, on the weaker side. Overall price action is outright tedious. VIX remains broadly subdued, although a daily close in the 10s looks probable. Right now, even the sp'2520s should at least equate to VIX 11/12s.

sp'60min



VIX'60min



Summary

Well, it continues to not be the most exciting of days. Equities will be inclined to lean weak into the close. Tomorrow is setting up to be at least somewhat interesting.

There are at least some dynamic individual movers though, and I'll focus on those...

--
notable weakness, GILD, daily



Gilead is just seeing some s/t weak chop/consolidation after massive gains since the summer. I am VERY bullish this stock. If it can clear $90, then its open air to around $110. Considering the current F' Pe is just 11, I could understand if some have a m/t target on this >150.

--
notable weakness, BABA, daily



Alibaba looks tired, after yesterday breaking a new historic high. S/t bearish to at least $175, but m/t bullish to 225/50 by late spring 2018.

--
notable weakness, DIS, daily



Disney continues to struggle, as the recent low of $96.20 looks set to fail. That'll see things spiral to the 94/93s. I know a few are seeking the mid/low $80s, but that seems a stretch within this broadly strong market. Earnings are due in early November, and from there, I'd look for a late year ramp to $105/110 zone, partly inspired by mainstream Star Wars hysteria.
--

Finally... strength in SNAP, daily



SNAP is sig' higher for a second day, but there is notable selling within what is key gap/IPO resistance of 16.50/17.00. Broadly, I see no reason to change, and deem this stock... loss making garbage.

--
back at the close... to wrap up the day.

2pm update - metals and miners

US equities remain fractionally mixed, leaning on the weaker side. Meanwhile, the precious metals are fractionally higher, Gold +$2, with Silver +0.2%. The gold miner ETF of GDX is currently u/c @ $23.80.


GLD daily



GDX daily



Summary

Gold/GLD: the bullish mid term trend from the key multi-year low of Dec'2015 remains intact. Since the rally from the July lows, Gold has again become stuck. Gold bugs need a decisive move >$1400 to have confidence. Copper remains indirectly suggestive that gold and silver will eventually catch up, as the trio do broadly trade together across the years.

GDX: much like gold, broadly choppy, and stuck firmly under the Feb' high of $25.71. The cautious will wait to chase until the $26s are seen, which would open up a fast run to the summer 2016 high in the $31s.
--

Equities: sp'60min


Price action remains very muted, and regardless of the close, with a new historic high (if only fractional) earlier, its a day for the bulls.

--
notable miner, SCCO, daily


Southern copper is pushing for a new historic intraday high and close. With copper seeing an Aug' close >$3.00, the miners followed. SCCO looks broadly set for $50. That view would only be dropped if copper <2.80.

1pm update - oil and energy

US equities remain in minor chop mode. Meanwhile, WTIC is currently -1.8% in the $50s. The energy sector ETF of XLE is currently net lower for the week by -0.2% in the upper $67s.


USO daily



XLE weekly



Summary

WTIC/USO: the mid term series of lower highs and lower lows ended last month. Ongoing price action is clustered around the $50 psy' level, and there is little reason why that might change in the near term.

XLE: decisively outside of the m/t bearish trend. S/t chop, but the Dec'2016 highs look set to be broken, not least if WTIC can eventually get to the 55/60 zone by spring 2018.
--


Equities: sp'60min


A fractional new historic high, but broadly... stuck. Another wave lower this afternoon is due, although 2540/37 looks out of range until tomorrow.

--
notable energy stock, RIG, daily


Along with the sector, Transocean recently broke the m/t downward trend. S/t bearish though, vulnerable to the 9.50/00 zone. APC would be a valid alternative, not least with the recently announced buy back program.
--

Meanwhile... Summers is on the loose...


.... slamming Trump's tax plan.

Note the 'book background', always a standard tactic to attempt to appear smart. Its quite effective actually, regardless of whatever nonsense is spouted.