Thursday, 13 July 2017

VIX and Index update

US equity indexes closed fractionally mixed, sp +4pts at 2447. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers moderate cooling to sp'2435, but anything under 2425 looks a stretch before the weekend.




sp: a daily trading range of barely 8pts (0.3%), as the market is somewhat tired, but so far, the bears can't muster anything. Cooling to at least sp'2435 is due, but anything <2425 before the weekend looks a stretch, as the US equity market is still regularly breaking new historic highs. Its notable that the sp' saw a bullish cross today.

Trans: a new historic high of 9742, just 2.6% shy of the giant psy' level of 10k, but settling fractionally lower. First soft support tomorrow will be in the low 9600s... barely 1% lower. Cyclically, a bearish cross is viable within 1-2 days. Core support - with the 50dma /lower bollinger, will be in the 9300s next week.


Volatility remains broadly subdued, with the VIX lower for a fifth consecutive day, settling -3.9% at 9.90. If the sp' keeps pushing upward to new historic highs (>2553), then VIX will have a high probability of breaking below the recent low of 9.37, which was the lowest VIX since 1993.

Looking ahead by 6pm EST