Thursday 13 July 2017

3pm update - still due to swing lower

US equities remain moderately mixed. Cyclically - short term, some cooling to at least sp'2435 is due, although that looks a stretch before today's close. VIX remains reflective of a capital market that has near zero concerns. Metals remain weak, Gold -$1, with Silver -1.1%. WTIC is set to close higher by around 1% in the upper $45s.


sp'60min



VIX'60min



Summary

Well, its been a somewhat frustrating day. Cyclically, we're seeing the overbought smaller 15/60min cycles reset, yet the market has still been able to lean upward, and we even saw a new historic high for the transports.

Cooling to sp'2435 remains due, lead lower by the semi-conductors.

Many closing hours in recent weeks have seen new intra highs, but then distinct weakness in the final 30 minutes.

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notable weakness, NVDA, daily



Nvidia came real close to the key June 9th high of $168.50, but the buyers are faded, and its turned lower.. following AMD and MU. Arguably... a double top.
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notable strength, AAPL, daily



The tech behemoth of Apple is one reason why the bears are so far unable to pull the main market lower. Its actually on track for a fifth consecutive net daily gain. Things turn very bullish with a break above the 50dma, although that looks out of range before the close.. and probably until next week, as the main market needs to at least cool to sp'2435.

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I might return for a brief intrahour update at 3.30pm...

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3.28pm

sp'60min



At the current rate, a bearish cross will be due by 10am tomorrow... and that'll result in 2435. A close under the hourly 10MA - 2446, is viable, as Cashin on CNBC talks about a sellside imbalance...
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notable weakness, MU, daily



Note yesterday's black-fail candle, confirmed with today's weakness. I really like the company for the mid term, with the PE of just 5, its insanely mis-priced. Short term though.. it looks vulnerable.

notable strength, X, daily



US Steel finally hits first soft target of the $24.00 threshold, as Trump talks about Steel tariffs. Things turn hyper bullish with the $28s... where the 200dma is lurking.
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Back at the close.. to wrap things up....