Friday, 30 June 2017

June wraps up

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +3pts at 2423 (intra high 2432). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.9% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers renewed downside. Most bearish case in first half of July would be sp'2352/48, with Nasdaq in the low 5900s. Broadly though, still bullish, as earnings and econ-data are still coming in 'reasonable'.




It was a rather choppy day, as opening gains failed, with the Nasdaq comp' turning fractionally red. Yet with WTIC oil building very sig' gains of 3%, equities leaned upward into the late afternoon.

The final hour of the week/month/Q2/H1 was rather interesting. After a new intraday high of 2432, there was a distinct case of 'rats bailing into the weekend', with the sp' settling just fractionally higher. Nasdaq notably closed a touch red.

It was a mixed day for volatility, generally in 'cooling mode' (intra low 10.40 in early morning), but climbing into the close, as equities rapidly cooled.

Near term outlook is bearish, and note today's black-fail candle for the sp'500. Such candles are not to be dismissed lightly!


The sp' broke a new historic high of 2453, but settled June net higher by 11pts (0.5%) at 2423. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) is showing a fractional rollover, but remains strong positive. Even if the market was to decline from current levels, we'd not seen a critical bearish cross until at least Sept/Oct.

Special update on the freakshow entertainment that is Blue Apron (APRN)

With no underwriter support today, Mr Market has started to discover the 'real value', which is a lot closer to $0.00 than $10.00. APRN settled -6.5% at $9.35, having seen an intra low of just $9.17. If the main market drops more than 1% next week, the $8s are a given.. perhaps even the 7s.

Here in the city of towers...

...  many are in the early phase of having flammable panels (produced by Arconic) removed. I imagine some like Krugman would call such a situation a positive for the UK economy, not least in terms of employment.

Goodnight from London

*the weekend post will appear Sat'12pm EST, and will detail the World monthly indexes. It remains my most important post of the month.