Friday, 16 September 2016

They tell me its crashing

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +21pts @ 2147 (intra low 2122). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.6% and 1.3% respectively. VIX settled -10.1% @ 16.30. Near term outlook offers a great deal of moderate price chop all the way into next Wednesday's FOMC.




There is not much to note about today. There was a pre-market tease to the equity bears, as the sp' tested the 2120/19 floor, but it held of course.. with the broader market building gains across the day.

If the Fed decide to once again hold off from raising rates - which seems very probable, then the market will resume pushing higher into October, and viably, all the way into spring 2017. 

The crash callers

Like many of you, I read and follow a lot of people online. A few are outright bullish cheerleaders... others are from the more murky corners.

Its that time of year when the crash/collapse calling is most frequent. This is somewhat understandable, as some of the biggest drops have been during the Sept-Oct' period.

The following three videos are a fair representation of some of the ongoing crash calling.

Ron Walker is actually one of my most favoured chartists, but how could he be bearish with the market just 2-3% from recent historic highs? Walker can spend hours quoting dozens of different technical indicators, but actual price action remains broadly bullish, and that's what really matters, right?

The end game - SGT

When they aren't promoting a particular micro mining stock, SGT will normally have guests touting an imminent collapse wave. In particular, the 'dollar doomers' are regularly featured. After all, the American people are going to be shopping at Walmart, and pay with Gold and Silver coins, yes?

Financial apocalypse - Bo Polny

The phrase 'viewer discretion advised' comes to mind for this third and final example. Its 'entertaining' in a particularly twisted way, and is far beyond the twilight zone of 'kook' land. I'd imagine Mr P would be interesting
to chat with, and I have to wonder, is he currently holding hundreds of VIX calls and SPY puts?

Nothing bearish yet

Despite the (surprising) decline back under the breakout level of sp'2134, the US market remains broadly bullish. My personal 'alarm bell' level are the sp'2050s. If we see any sustained price action in the 2050s or lower, then yes... I'll be open to some kind of sharp (if brief) crashy move. Until then though... any such crash talk can be dismissed as attention-seeking, playing to the 'end of the world' crowd, or just plain wrong.

I could easily increase my audience by touting such an 'imminent crash', but as I've said a fair few times over the last four years... I ain't doing it.

Goodnight from London