Saturday, 31 December 2016

Another market year concludes

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -10pts @ 2238. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled lower by -0.4%. VIX settled +5.0% @ 14.04. Near term outlook is still leaning weak. Any price action <2230 would offer a straight run to the 2205/00 zone, before the broader bullish trend resumes.




The market opened a little higher, but once again, the gains didn't last more than a few minutes. There was sustained (if moderate) weakness across the day, with a late afternoon low of 2233. The closing hour was naturally pretty choppy.

VIX closed notably higher for a sixth consecutive day.

The most bearish case for next week would be further weakness to around the sp'2200 threshold, which would equate to VIX in the 15.50/17.00 zone. The key 20 threshold still looks out of range for at least a month.

As for the outlook for 2017...

The outlook for 2017 is shrouded in cloud, but isn't it always?

Goodnight from an icy and foggy London

*the weekend post will appear Sat' 12pm EST, and will detail the world monthly indexes. Frankly, its my most important post of the month.... and year.