Thursday, 25 August 2016

Weakness ahead of Jackson Hole

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -11pts @ 2175. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.1% and -0.9% respectively. VIX settled +8.6% @ 13.45 (intra high 14.01). Near term outlook offers Thursday chop.. ahead of Yellen on Friday. From there, the 2200s remain probable before end month.




It was just another day of minor price chop... leaning on the moderately weak side.

VIX finally managed a close in the 13s, for the first time in 3 weeks. However, the key 20 threshold still looks out of range for at least another month.

Talk of the 2300s continues

As I noted yesterday, mainstream talk is increasingly looking ahead to year end. Siegel is another who is seeking the sp'2300s by year end. Its obvious.. but still worthy of note... we're only talking about upside of 6-7%... which isn't exactly bold, considering we've four full months remaining of the year.

For me, unless we trade back under the breakout level of the 2130s in the somewhat tricky period of Sept/Oct, there is zero reason to expect any kind of autumnal/end year crash. I'll only put on my bearish hat if we're trading under the monthly 10MA, which in October will be around 2100.

Goodnight from London