Saturday, 4 June 2016

Daily Wrap

US equities closed moderately lower, sp -6pts @ 2099 (intra low 2085). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.4% and -0.6% respectively. VIX settled -1.2% @ 13.47. Relative to the increasingly borderline-recessionary econ-data, the US market is holding together bizarrely well.




A relatively narrow trading range in this short 4 day week, from a marginal new cycle high of sp'2105 to this morning's low of 2085, and settling effectively flat (for the week) at 2099.

VIX remains remarkably low, and there was even a 'rogue print' of 12.90 in the opening half hour of trading, although few seem to have noticed.

If the short term low of 2085 can be broken, that offers at least a test of 2025 within the next week or two. Things only get interesting on a break <2025, with subsequent support at the lower weekly/monthly bollingers in the 1950/20s.

As for the weekly close...


Effectively, a flat week, with a marginal new short term high of 2105. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) offers high threat of a divergent lower cycle high. As things are, best chance of a significant down wave looks viable in 2-3 weeks.

Goodnight from London

*the weekend post will appear here (Sat' 12pm EST), and will detail the world monthly indexes.