Thursday, 12 May 2016

WTIC oil - headed to $50?

Whilst US equities closed broadly lower, there was contrasting strength in WTIC oil, which settled +$2.19 (4.9%) at $46.75. The psy' level of $50 is the next natural upside target, but considering the US/world capital markets are set to get increasingly twitchy, that won't be easy.

WTIC, daily

WTIC, weekly


So.. with a break to the $47s... the $50 threshold is now really close... and its a bizarre thought that if Oil somehow reached $52.. that would be an effecting doubling.

However, considering the broader equity/capital markets should start to get increasingly twitchy into late May.. and especially across June... it would be surprising if Oil did not also start to cool on fears of weak global growth.

Then there is the underlying over-supply issue. Despite today's net weekly surplus of 3.4 million barrels, global supply remains well above demand... and that should keep prices from seeing any sustained action above the big $50 threshold.

I remain of the view that the $26 low will be tested again.. if not briefly broken to the upper teens..for capitulation in the energy industry.

Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, and import/export prices.

*there are a trio of fed officials on the loose.. and Mr Market will be listening for any hint that the Fed will hold off.. ahead of the BREXIT vote.

4.07am BST.. still awake...

*bonus chart... for the real doomers out there..


Ironically.. for those equity bears who can't much stand Oscar Carboni (its been a while since I received an emailed complaint for highlighting one of his videos), his 'failed head test' scenario is still offering one of the more valid bearish scenarios this summer/autumn.

I shall close with this...

I could listen to the first 80 seconds of this... for eternity. Make of that... what you will.

Goodnight from London