Monday, 9 May 2016

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +1pt @ 2058. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled u/c and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers a further push to around 2080, but a bullish breakout looks unlikely. Instead, equity bears should get opportunity to break the Friday low of 2039.



*closing hour action: a lot of chop, but clearly cooling into the close.

Well.. a pretty quiet start to the week.. despite some big moves in commodity land.

The break lines are pretty clear...

1. Equity bulls break and hold above 2080.. in which case.. a move above 2111 is viable


2. Regardless of any further chop... a break under the Friday low of 2039.. which will open up an important daily close in the 2020s, and that should resolve into a short term floor around 2000/1990s.

Right now, I'm still leaning to the latter scenario...  and if the USD can keep climbing.. that will really increase the underlying downward pressure.

more later... on the VIX