Friday, 13 May 2016

3pm update - a red candle with a spike

US equity indexes are set for a third consecutive net weekly decline, lead lower by the Transports. Most notable, the weekly candle has a pretty clear spiky top.. indicative of exhaustion to the upside. If the sp'2020s can be seen early next week, it will give initial clarity/confidence that 2111 is indeed a key mid term high.




re: VIX.. clearly, still broadly subdued in the 15s, even a move to the 19-21 zone won't rank as anything particularly interesting.

*basic target late May/early June 25/30. The 40/50s look viable on any serious market turmoil with sp'1800s in June/July.

So.. after a gods damn large amount of annoying swings.. we're set to close net lower for a third week.. although still above a great many aspects of support.

For the big money.. its pretty simple... a short stop at 2134, 2111... or a fair way tighter.

As has been the case since summer 2015.. we're broadly stuck... and it appears just a matter of weeks before a sustained/significant move lower.

A close <2039 would be a bonus right now...   along with VIX 16s.