Wednesday, 18 May 2016

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open a little lower, but notably holding above the key low of sp'2039. Despite the initial chop, a break <2039 remains imminent, and that should then spiral to 2000/1990s within days. The only issue is whether a valid H/S scenario plays out.. which would instead offer a more dynamic decline to 1970/60s.


VIX, daily3


A fair bit of minor chop... but we're clearly still leaning weak.

Daily MACD (blue bar histogram) equity cycle is ticking lower, and we should see increasing downside pressure for the rest of this week.

Similarly, VIX - which has been broadly stuck in the mid/low teens since early March.. is close to starting an upside surge.

notable strength, TSLA, daily

As GS tout $250.. but that seems ludicrous, even more so, as Goldman themselves tout stocks to be broadly weak for the next 12mths.

*awaiting the oil report at 10.30am....

10.32am.. Net inventory gain, 1.3 million barrels....

Oil remains a little weak, -0.5%.. but still at the bizarrely high level of the $48/49s.