Saturday, 16 April 2016

The borderline bearish scenario

Having broke new multi-month highs of sp'2087 and Dow 17962, the broader bearish scenario remains extremely borderline. Arguably, any price action >Dow 18K and/or sp'2116, will trash any remaining hope that the market is still due another major downward swing into the summer/autumn.




re: monthly1b. Equity bears should be desperate for a monthly close back under the 10MA, currently @ 2021. A monthly close near/at the highs would arguably negate what little remains of the broader bearish scenario.

re: weekly8e: This includes the notion of a 'failed head test' as often touted by Oscar Carboni.

Technically, the scenario is valid so long as the market does not break AND hold above the head - aka.. the high from November - Dow 17977 and sp'2116.

Considering the Dow was 17962 on Thursday... we've already come close to one of the very last tolerable short-stop levels.

Market chatter from Schiff

I would agree the ongoing broad strength in the precious metals (along with related miners) is an indirect signal that the equity market is still vulnerable to renewed downside.

Goodnight from London

*the weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes