Thursday, 28 April 2016

3pm update - moody sky to end the day

US equities are increasingly weak, as the bull maniacs have been unable to re-take the sp'2100 threshold. Price structure remains a clear bear flag, with natural downside to the sp'2060s - which would likely equate to VIX in the 16s. Meanwhile... the comedy resumes in AAPL as Icahn has made a run for the exit door.




So... we're clearly leaning on the weaker side into the close.... but that doesn't really negate this morning's utterly lame reversal.

Frankly, even if we settle the week/month in the sp'2060s tomorrow, it should not particularly please the bears. I can't be remotely confident again until I see a daily close in the 2020s.

notable weakness... AAPL, daily

Icahn proudly announces on clown finance TV that he has entirely exited his AAPL position. For around 2 years, Icahn has touted AAPL well into the $200s.

*the bigger monthly cycle is offering $70... if the main market does rollover into the summer.

Here in London city...

Moody skies... favouring the bears.

3.12pm.. Equity bear flag... confirmed... with the VIX backing it up.

So... 2060s by end Friday... probably.

3.18pm... re: AMZN, earnings due at the close...   daily

Best guess.. downside to the $540s....   price structure could be argued is a giant H/S.... which would suggest $300... and yes.. I realise the latter would be seen as beyond 'crazy talk'.

yours bearish retailers with fractional/zero profit margins.

3.25pm.. the recent low of 2077... clearly broken... with VIX 15s.

The cheerleaders on clown finance TV are trying not to appear too spooked right now.. as AMZN earnings are due.

notable weakness... AAPL -3.5% in the $94s.... things only get interesting with sub 90.

3.28pm.. market finding a touch of support on the trend from 2039/33... .at 2072....

Equity bears REALLY need to push for <2072.....

3.35pm.. Well.. this is one way to end the day I guess....  VIX +11% in the mid 15s.

More important.. the fact we've seen a FULL reversal of the morning reversal... that IS bearish for tomorrow.. and arguably into next week. 

3.42pm.. so far.. rising trend from 2039/33 is holding.... which is somewhat annoying... but less annoying than a close in the 2100s

VIX +9% in the 15s.... somewhat better than 13.30.