Tuesday, 5 April 2016

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open broadly lower, with clear breaks of trend across a number of indexes. The VIX has already broken above last Friday's high, currently +10% in the 15.60s. The sp'2020/15 zone - with VIX 18s, look a valid target within a few days.




So.... now the obvious issue is 'will this end like last Friday?'

My view... no.

We have clear breaks of trend on the bigger daily cycles, but it will be some WEEKS before we have clarity that the series of 'marginal lower highs' - from May'2015, will remain intact.

notable blue candle...


A blue candle is a good candle :)

To be clear though... I would refer ANYONE to the price action of last Nov/Dec'... that is what seems probable across the next few weeks.

On no realistic outlook does a straight run to the mid/low 1900s look viable in the near term.

yours.. short.. but looking to close out this Wed-Friday.