Wednesday 16 March 2016

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +11pts @ 2027. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.1% and 0.7% respectively. Near term outlook threatens a Thursday gap higher to the price gap zone of sp'2038/43.. before a key top is put in. Sustained action >2040 looks extremely unlikely. First soft downside target is the 1940/30 zone.


sp'60min



Summary

*closing hour action: moderate chop.. leaning on the upside, with a new cycle high of 2032.

The 2pm and 3pm hourly candles are somewhat spiky.. typically indicative of a top. 
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... and now we have the FOMC out of the way.

The window is now wide open to the equity bears for the rest of the month.
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Best guess.. Thursday gap higher... to sp'2038/43... but then maxing out... and rolling lower into the Friday close.

In theory... given just 1 or 2 pieces of negative news.. we could be sp'1940/30 next week.. and that is certainly a down wave I'd like to be part of.

*I'll seek to short equities and be heavy long VIX tomorrow morning.

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more later... on the VIX