Tuesday, 1 March 2016

Bits and pieces to wrap up February

It was a rather dynamic month, with the sp'500 breaking a multi-year low of 1810, swinging higher to 1962, and settling net lower by -8pts (0.4%) @ 1932. The USD cooled, -1.5% at DXY 98.19. WTIC Oil settled +$0.01 at $33.75. Copper managed a sig' gain, +$0.07 (3.3%) @ $2.13.

sp'500, monthly

It was the third consecutive net monthly decline, which hasn't happened since late 2011. Most importantly for the equity bears, the sp'500 saw another close under the 10MA. Even if the market can battle upward into mid March, so long as the March close is under 2K (preferably <1930), the broader bearish outlook remains on track.

Best guess: further upside to the 2000/2040 zone by mid March, with increasingly powerful downside across April/May to the sp'1600s.

USD, monthly

Despite some weakness to DXY 95.28, the USD clawed higher into end month, with yet another close above the monthly 10MA. A monthly close above the giant DXY 100 threshold remains due, and from there, next target are the 120s.

WTIC, monthly2

WTIC oil closed the month effectively flat, having rallied from an intra month low of $26.05. Near term outlook threatens a brief climb to the $38/40 zone. Sustained action >40 looks extremely unlikely, as the over-supply issue remains entirely unaddressed.  WTIC Oil looks set for capitulation under the $20 threshold.

Copper, monthly

Copper saw a significant net monthly gain of 3%, but remains broadly stuck in the low $2s. If the USD can put in a monthly close >DXY 100, most commodities - especially copper, would likely break new multi-year lows.

Looking ahead

Tuesday will see PMI/ISM manu', and construction data.

Goodnight from London