Wednesday, 16 March 2016

3pm update - due a key turn

After a fair bit of twitchy price action, equities are pushing upward, as another tranche of equity bears are short-stopped out. No doubt, some truly bizarre bull maniacs are now chasing the market higher, as the Fed have said 'hey.. the economy is improving, but we only need two rate hikes'.

sp'15min cycle




*note the hourly MACD cycle now positive, but set to rollover.. whether into the close.. or after a viable Thursday moderate gap higher.

Q. What am I doing? Well, once Yellen fades away around 3.30pm.. the equity bears finally have an open window into end month.

I might short into the close... but I'm inclined to wait for early tomorrow, as I'm still seeing a key gap fill of sp'2038/43.. with Dow 17405/425.

On any fair basis.. we're now set for a retrace to the 50dma... as early as next week.. to the sp'1940/30 zone... and that certainly merits a short-trade... with the ECB and FOMC out of the way.

............updates into the close.

3.04pm.. It is notable that the upper bollinger on the daily is currently @ sp'2045. I don't expect the market to make it quite that high.. but clearly... 2038/43 remains an obvious target before some heavy sellers might start to appear.

Gold +$24.  GDX +5.1%...  those daily candles sure are starting to look crazy strong... and inversely bode in favour of equity bears.

3.10pm.. chop chop.. but holding moderate gains.. sp'2027... the 2038/43 zone VERY viable early tomorrow.

VIX remains crushed... -9% @ 15.30.... having hit the 14s.

notable weakness.. TVIX -6% @ $5.80...  I'd like an entry in the $5.60/30 zone tomorrow.

3.17pm.. I can understand if some equity bears are getting real frustrated right now... but we're getting damn close!

Yours truly remains content to wait overnight.... seeking to be short the indexes via SPY... and long volatility via TVIX....

Frankly.. the setup looks rather good (for the bears) after today.

3.23pm.. so.. now its just a case of whether we open a little higher tomorrow.   I'd imagine Asia/EU markets will rally in sympathy.. at least initially.

sp'2038/43 gap zone..remains viable.. but I'd agree.. time is almost up for this rally from Feb'11th.

3.31pm.. Yellen being asked by Bloomberg 'Are you considering NIRP with QE?'...

.. of course not, lol.

3.37pm.. Market melting upward.. ..  headed to the gap zone.

A key turn looks due tomorrow....  ALL equity/VIX cycles will favour the equity bears by tomorrow 11am.

3.40pm.. sp'2031... new cycle high.. VIX 14s.....      we're just 7pts shy of the lower end of prime gap zone !

3.44pm.. Extremely powerful reversal.. GDX swinging from -2.4% to +6.6%

It'd seem the metals/miners are a leading warning of an equity turn - as they were in mid December.

3.48pm...  sp'2029... VIX 14s... regardless of the exact close... a Thursday gap higher looks probable... and that will be something I will look to short.. not least as the FOMC is now out of the way.

back at the close :)