Friday, 5 February 2016

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +2pts @ 1915 (intra high 1927). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 3.2% and 0.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers renewed upside, with high threat of the 1960/80 zone. The recent key low of 1812 is likely to hold until at least mid March.




*price structure on the 'old leader' - Transports, remains a very clear multi-week bear flag. Broader downside to the 5500/5000 zone looks probable by late spring.

The sp'500 will have a Friday morning trading range - via hourly cycle, of 1920/1890. The 1872 low looks very secure, with probable upside to the 1960/80 zone next week.

Considering the bigger weekly MACD cycles, the market is likely to churn in a broad range into March. That will no doubt frustrate and confuse many. From a bearish trading perspective though, each extra week of churn helps to burn off the current oversold condition, and will make for an increasingly safer market short trade.

a little more later...