Friday, 5 February 2016

3pm update - ice cold in the market

US equities remain significantly lower, with a new intra low of sp'1875, but still 63pts (3.2%) above the recent key low. That low still looks secure for at least another 3-4 weeks. Yellen remains a key threat to the equity bears.. and with China shut across next week, the door IS open to renewed upside.




Clearly, today's declines were stronger than expected, and we're set for very significant net weekly declines.

Again, its notable that many have probably already forgotten that we broke a new cycle high on Monday.

As things are, if we are to see a break >1947... that looks viable no earlier than next Wednesday.

As for ice...

I only noticed after it was already half way through, 'Ice cold in Alex' (1957) was playing. It remains one of my all time favourite movies, simply perfect.

... updates into the close.. if price action picks up some more...

3.07pm... so much for 1875... now 1872 again... with VIX 24s.

VIX is still just not showing the kind of upside action that would reflect real concern.

3.20pm.. Yet another spike floor attempt.. this time from 1872 to 77.... in theory a close of 1883/85 is now on

3.34pm. Well, its getting choppy, and from a pure cyclical perspective, we're on the very low side. Market has two days to grind back to 1910/20s.. and then >1947.... whether Wed' or Thursday.

.. and I realise some of you will be merely seeking a straight run <1812 next week.

I'd only add.. even during the collapse wave of 2008, the market still had to rally before another drop - relative to late Dec/Jan'.