Tuesday, 9 February 2016

1pm update - weak chop

US equities are moderately weak, but comfortably above the Monday low of sp'1828. Market is merely in a holding pattern ahead of the Yellen, who will very likely attempt to soothe the market with indirect talk that there won't be any more rate hikes for 'some time'.


GLD, daily



*the precious metals are looking crazy overbought.. at RSI levels not seen since Oct'2012.

A cool down looks due, and that won't likely help the related gold/silver mining stocks. For GDX, a retrace to the 200dma looks viable, and that is $2 lower.. aka, 13% or so.

As for equities, the early morning low of 1834 looks secure, and makes for the first higher low from 1812.

The opening black-fail candle in the VIX is another likely tell that equities have to first bounce... before they can go down again.

I don't expect <1812 until mid March.

back at the close.  maybe