Thursday, 18 February 2016

11am update - are the mainstream getting twitchy yet?

With the market not significantly higher for a fourth consecutive day, some of the mainstream will no doubt be getting a little twitchy. They will (understandably) be asking if sp'1810 was really a key low for the year, or if this recent bounce is just that..... a bounce. Oil is +3.0% ahead of the EIA report... due at 11am.




*VIX breaks a new cycle low of 21.72, which is wrecking hopes of even moderate equity downside this afternoon.

Clearly, there really isn't any downside power right now.

It could easily be argued though.. we've a short term top... due a retrace - probably no lower than the sp'1900 threshold.

However, the daily cycle remains powerfully bullish, and I'd be concerned about launching any shorts from current levels.

*will update a daily chart later... as I do realise 2K is a threat.... although still looks difficult.

Here in London city....

Another day closer to summer

Behold.. the rising moon!

After yesterday's grey horror, today is better.. and yet more cranes are appearing. The London crane index must be close to historic highs... and that usually marks a cyclical peak.

time to cook

11.01am: Oil inventory weekly surplus: 2.1 million.... contrary to yesterday's API.

Equities being dragged lower.... sp -7pts.. 1919.. ohh the humanity!

For the moment though.. VIX is NOT confirming... and remains -2.5% in the 21.70s.... 

11.25am.. Well... with things as they are... we'll see an hourly MACD bearish cross at 12pm... solidifying a retrace for rest of today.   First target is the sp'1900 threshold.  Fibonacci would be more suggestive of 1884.

In any case....we ain't closing significantly higher for a fourth day.

VIX is STILL fractionally negative.... pretty bizarre.