Wednesday 3 February 2016

10am update - opening gains, but shaky

US equities open moderately higher, but look very vulnerable into tomorrow. More sustainable upside does not look viable until Friday. Oil is higher by around 2.0% , ahead of the latest EIA report.


sp'60min



VIX'60min



Summary

*ISM serv': 53.2, broadly inline     PMI serv':53.5.... under consensus of 55s
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So.. we're higher, but clearly, the gains are kinda bizarre considering overnight price action in Asia/Europe.

Best guess.... yesterday's low of sp'1897 will be marginally broken under, whether late today or tomorrow. From there, Friday offers better chance of renewed upside.. with the 1970s next week.
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notable weakness...

Ford (F) -1.8%, TSLA -4.5%, GM -1.9%, notable sector anomaly.. RACE +5%.

BAC -2.4%...  comments from Kuroda are not helping financial stocks across the world.

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time for a little sun, and to shop... back soon for the oil report.
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10.36am.. Oil inventory surplus, 7.8 million, much like last week.

So.. equities to sp'1873... and it will soon be time for a turn.

I'd guess the retrace of the bounce from 1947 is about complete.