Friday, 29 January 2016

Awaiting a second bearish monthly close

Regardless of whether the market closes the week in the sp'1920s, 10s, or <1900, the January close will be a very bearish one, with a net decline of -6% to -8%. The Jan' close will fully confirm the bearish December close, with the sp'1600s probable this spring.


Trans, monthly


*the 'old leader' looks dire, headed back to the 2012 breakout level of 5500 or so.

So.. regardless of how tomorrow closes, we're seeing important downside follow through.

At best, the equity bulls could make a play to test the monthly 10MA, but as of next Monday's open, that will probably have declined to around sp'2000. 

Sustained action >2K looks out of range for many months.

Looking ahead

Friday has a rather important set of econ-data points..

Q4 GDP. Market is expecting growth of around 1%. That is of course much lower than consensus from just a month ago.

Its possible - based on other data, that Q4 will come in fractionally negative. In any case... the US, and broader world economy continue to have building problems as a result of the ongoing collapse in commodities.

Other data: Chicago PMI, market is expecting 45.. which would still be well below the recessionary threshold of 50. Any print <50 should have everyone at least concerned. A print <40 should sound alarm bells.

Consumer sent', employment costs

*Fed official Williams is due to appear in the afternoon.

Goodnight from London