Tuesday, 19 January 2016

3pm update - Oil is causing renewed problems

US equities continue to struggle, with the sp' having seen a powerful downward swing of 1.8% from sp'1901 to 1864. Oil is -3.6% in the $29s.. as the market remains understandably concerned (amongst many things) at Iranian Oil production. If sp'1857 fails to hold, then its empty air to the 1750/25 zone.




..so much for the bull flag... the 1870s really needed to hold.

If 1857 fails.. then its empty air to 1750/25 BEFORE the FOMC... and then a rally.

Best guess: the low HOLDS, but for anyone bold enough who is long, 1857 remains the ultimate and absolutely clear dead-stop level.

notable weakness...

CHK, daily

.. as Mr Market is starting to finally recognise this company is on the 'disappear list'.

3.10pm.. a notable bounce from sp'1864 to 1874... bulls need a close >1875 to break above short term down trend.

VIX -1% in the 26s... showing NO sign of going hyper.. and that IS a problem for the equity bears.

3.25pm.. Well, there is sp'1878... a net daily fractional gain is on the menu... but hell... bulls got a real scare just earlier.

VIX confirming the underlying upward pressure, -1% in the 26s.

I'd only feel comfortably long-VIX from 20/18.. with TVIX 7/6s.

3.29pm.. pretty fierce short-stop cascade... swinging from 1864 to 1881

It remains a NASTY MARKET ! 



We have our first higher low, next target.. break >1901 tomorrow.

3.50pm.. very nasty for any bears chasing lower this afternoon.. swinging from 1864 to 1888