Thursday, 21 January 2016

1pm update - provisional bullish break

With the sp'500 pushing to 1889 - along with VIX 25.01, there is a clear provisional break, as seen on the daily charts. Equity/energy bears look exhausted, with a viable bounce to 1940/70s into early February. Any bounce does nothing to the mid term outlook though, the 1600s remain on track.




Not much to add.

Anyone resolutely holding short has an increasing problem.

Sure, we could trade lower tomorrow/early next week (but holding >1812) - ahead of the Yellen/FOMC, but broadly... it looks like we have a short term floor.

Oil is certainly helping, having swung from -2% to +4%... despite another inventory build.

*watching a few analysts on clown finance TV discuss Oil, it remains a little bizarre how they are talking about a core floor... whilst the over-supply issue has still not be remotely resolved.

There is yet to be industry capitulation in the oil/gas AND mining sector.

back at 2pm