Friday, 29 January 2016

1pm update - its not January 2008, its July

An interesting call on clown finance TV from Mr Ross of Evercore, suggesting this month was analogous to Jan'2008. However, if one wants to invoke that analogy, the pattern would really suggest its July - reflecting the big bear flag (Aug-Dec'2015) that was confirmed by the very bearish January down wave.



*Rick Ross of Evercore touted the 1700/1670 zone as a valid target in first half. It was interesting to hear him talk about how bankruptcies are to be expected... and that is something I continue to regularly highlight.

We've not forgotten about Glencore, FCX, CHK, SDRL etc... have we?

To be clear... I am NOT touting sub sp'1600s.. yet.

Annoyingly.. if it does occur, it'll be so fast as to catch almost everyone by surprise.

I am already thinking I'll probably want to 'trade light' when sp' <1730.

In theory... 3-5 blue candles - much like late July/August 2008.. and then renewed downside in late Feb/March.

The issue will be... does the market see a collapse wave that gets stuck above the double top of 2000/2007 - sp'1600/1575 zone.. or will a few mini 'black swans' spook the market to the 1550/1400s in March/April.

If its the latter, then a floor of sp'1200s in early Q4 would make sense.

Anyway.. its something to ponder on... for an hour.