Thursday, 7 January 2016

11am update - NOW SELLING

US equities remain broadly weak, with the sp -18pts @ 1972. The early low of 1954 would make sense for a short term low (having filled the gap from 3 months ago), but there is currently ZERO sign of actual capitulation. Further weakness to at least 1920/00 looks due... whether tomorrow... or Monday.




We're seeing a rather natural bounce from the gap zone...  but all things considered, I don't see 1954 as a key low. It would seem HIGHLY likely we'll trade down to 1920/00 tomorrow/Monday.

To be absolutely clear...

If we close Friday close to/at the low of the week, I'd give odds of 75/80% that Monday will open -100/125 handles into the sp'1700s. That would make for short term capitulation in markets across the world, with a bounce into February/March.

Meanwhile... in a semi-flooded London city....

Finally.. Golden light

It IS a sign. Everything must be sold!

There remains an immense amount of house building across the capital, not least as mainland Europeans want a secondary home in a more secure location. In terms of prices, the London property market has peaked. There is also the 'crane indicator'. With so many construction cranes across the skyline, it is highly indicative of a bubble peak.

Maybe the ruling Gov't will want to mandate that everyone above the age of 20 to take out a subsidised mortgage of $250/350,000 ? After all, more debt will help the economy, yes?

Have no doubt... some crazy ass Govt' policies/directives are coming, not just in communist China, but across the western world.

time to cook