Thursday, 21 January 2016

10am update - opening shaky gains

As has been the case many times in the past few weeks, US equities open higher... but the gains are clearly shaky, with indexes quickly turning negative. On the bullish side, a powerful spike floor from sp'1812. On the bearish side, 1812 makes little sense as a key low, with weekly/monthly cycles suggestive of 1730 before end month.




Draghi has done his best to 'inspire' the EU/world capital markets.

Clearly, the gains still aren't sustaining, but neither is the market imploding.

Best guess... 1812 holds.. with a daily close >1900... tomorrow/next Monday. However, I will note, I have VERY LOW confidence in the near term outlook.

The bigger mid term looks clear though, with the sp'1600/1500s by late spring/early summer. Ironically, the real issue is how will the central banks respond to that kind of equity drop?

notable weakness....

CHK -4%.. ahead of the oil/nat' gas reports

NFLX -5%, I guess a PE of >300 is just a little too high?
STX -6%
TWTR -2%...  lousy..

time for some sun... or I'll get even more twitchy than this market.

... back for the Oil report at 10.30am.


10.30am.. Ohh right.. the Oil report is 11.00am.

sp +9pts @ 1868....  equity bears looking tired.. but until >1900... there remains threat... if decreasing.