Thursday 17 December 2015

Farewell ZIRP, hello LIRP

With the FOMC deciding to change rates for the first time in exactly seven years, it is a farewell to ZIRP. Clearly though, even if rates are raised 3-5 times per year, interest rates are going to remain broadly low for a very long time. Welcome to the new era of LIRP... low interest rate policy.


sp'weekly1b


sp'monthly3


Summary

*note the third consecutive green candle on the monthly cycle... back above the 10MA (2055).
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Suffice to add, the weekly index candles are looking rather powerful.

As I will keep saying though.. what is now mission critical to the equity bulls..  new historic highs MUST be achieved in the current multi-week up cycle.

The next 3-5 weeks will be very important for how 2016 trades.

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Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs, phil' fed, current acc', leading indicators.
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Reflections on today's FOMC decision

Considering the weak mindedness of the Fed to raise rates in spring/early summer, I was indeed a little surprised they went for 25bps.. rather than follow the ECB and move in tenths of a percent.

Those who long touted that rates would NEVER rise will no doubt change their spiel to a 'its one and done'. When rates are raised a second time - probably March/April, what will they say then? Oh yeah... 'two and done'. Some are unable to adapt.

It sure was an interesting day, but I'm already looking forward to some rest this weekend.

Goodnight from London