US equity indexes closed significantly higher, sp +24pts @ 2090. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.1% and 2.9% respectively. Near term outlook is now bearish, with first downside target of the sp'2K threshold, and that should equate to VIX in the 18/20 zone.
*closing hour: renewed upside.. but the marginal new highs were not particularly reflected in the closing VIX.
Despite the closing hour new high, there are clear reversals in other parts of the capital markets... such as the precious metals.
Having ramped from sp'1871 to 2090 (219pts) across 5 weeks, a retrace of 4-5% seems entirely natural.
Right now.. I'd only give a probability of 10% or so that we'll see a more powerful retrace to the gap zone of 1950. Frankly.. it seems just too difficult.. relative to recent price action.
more later... on the VIX