Thursday, 24 September 2015

China is starting to roll

Whilst the US indexes saw a rather choppy and dull trading day, there was some interesting weakness in the Chinese market. The Shanghai comp' settled -2.2% @ 3115. Price structure across the last few weeks is a clear bear flag, with viable downside to the 2500/2000 zone in October.

China, daily


Little to add.

All things considered.. the SSEC looks set for sub 3000 within days.... and then we should see another down wave... much like August.

As for the US market...


I sure am seeing a lot of bullish talk in the last few days.. which I'm finding pretty bizarre. Either this market is building a rather strange floor, or it is simply the case that many are losing sight of the bigger picture. Price structure was a bear flag.. which was broken last Friday. Why would anyone want to be going long mere days after such a key break?

*I would look for the weekly 'rainbow' candle to turn red by Friday.. if sp'1900 or lower, which would offer clarity for next week... and into end month.

Looking ahead

Thursday will see the weekly jobs, Durable Goods Orders, New Home sales

*Yellen is due to speak at 5pm EST... and Mr Market will be very closely listening.

Economics/Market talk, Mr Long with Mr Smith

Highly recommended. Please note, there are a few brief audio drops.

*Since it was highlighted in the video, here is the Dow, with the 200 weekly MA

Dow' weekly, 16yr, Elder'

I would imagine there is a high chance of taking out the 200wma in the next down wave... by mid Oct.

Update from Oscar

Perhaps the most bearish video I've ever seen from Oscar, and makes a number of points that I've also made lately.

In the trenches

So.. a moderately negative day for equities.. but really, it wasn't great for yours truly... underwater in 4 of 4 positions, although it will only take one sig' down day to turn things around to a very profitable situation.

I would certainly prefer to close out 2-3 positions into the coming weekend. Broadly though, I am pretty confident we'll see the sp'1900 threshold tested by late Friday. Whether we get a weekly close <1900... difficult to say.

Goodnight from London