Friday 25 September 2015

3pm update - things are starting to get interesting

US equities have seen a rather fierce snap lower in the 2pm hour, with the sp' cooling from an intra high of 1952 to 1927. VIX is seeing a mini explosion to the 23s... the 24s now look viable by the close. The broader trend remains bearish.. and today has now become a 100% FAIL for the bull maniacs.


sp'60min



vix'daily2



Summary

*a VERY notable second green candle on the daily VIX chart
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Frankly.. this is not just very pleasing to see... but pretty funny too.

The pre-market gains were utter nonsense... and here we are... RED indexes.... with sig' net weekly declines for most indexes (Dow is the exception).

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Update from Riley


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updates in the close..................


3.01pm.. some buyers come in (or bears covering?)... sp'1932.. back to flat...

Regardless, some rather powerful tech' damage has been done to the rally from yesterday.

ANY daily close in the 1920s would give strong bearish clarity for Monday.

*underlying hourly MACD cycle is set to turn neg' Monday morning... momentum IS swinging back toward the bears.
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3.04pm. R2K continues to lead the way lower... -1.2%...  a pretty powerful reversal.
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3.10pm.. First downside target is the hourly lower bol @ 1910... next to the Thurs' low.

After that... a straight run to the 1867 low.

Door is clearly opening to the Oct' 2014 low of 1820.... first things first though... the weekly close!



3.13pm.. First upside target is VIX 25... viable by the close....   then 30.. for Monday.


3.16pm.. What a beautiful end to the week.....  the BEARS are back in control.. on ALL cycles.

VIX headed for 25...
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3.23pm.. One thing is for sure.. the previous 4-5 hours weren't making a baby bull flag.

Weakness into the close...   eyes on the VIX.

*as things are.. I remain SHORT-spy... LONG-VIX.... currently intending to hold across the weekend.
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3.29pm.. a rather wild spike from 1922 to 1931.. with VIX back in the 23s... Hmm.

Broadly though.. the damage has been done this afternoon... the daily/weekly cycles continue to offer much lower levels next Monday... lead lower by the R2K, currently -1.4%


3.35pm.. The battle is raging... as bears are screaming for a daily close in the 1920s... bulls will be lucky to see 1930s... STILL a net daily decline.

VIX 23.30s... having cooled... renewed upside into the close... probable.